As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten annexing Greenland, consultants are warning the way forward for the North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO) — of which Canada is a member — is at stake.
Hours earlier than the overseas ministers of Greenland and Denmark have been set to fulfill prime U.S. officers within the White Home on Wednesday, Trump took to his social media platform Reality Social to push for U.S. management over the island.
“NATO turns into much more formidable and efficient with Greenland within the palms of the UNITED STATES,” Trump wrote. “Something lower than that’s unacceptable.”
Greenland is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, which is a member of the NATO navy alliance. Final week, Trump hinted at potential motion.
“If we don’t do it the simple method we’re going to do it the exhausting method,” he stated.
Article 5 is without doubt one of the core ideas of the 76-year-old navy alliance and states that “an armed assault in opposition to one NATO member shall be thought-about an assault in opposition to all members, and triggers an obligation for every member to return to its help.”
The one time the article has ever been invoked has been after the terrorist assaults of Sept. 11, 2001.
The alliance has by no means needed to cope with one member attacking one other.
“Though NATO has survived tensions between its members up to now, there is no such thing as a precedent for an precise inside assault,” stated Nicole Covey, a fellow on the Canadian International Affairs Institute.
Get breaking Nationwide information
For information impacting Canada and world wide, join breaking information alerts delivered on to you after they occur.
“In spite of everything, there’s this established norm that allies are usually not alleged to assault one another in the event that they need to keep any form of optimistic tie,” she added.
It’s unlikely that the alliance would survive if the U.S., the de facto chief of the alliance, assaults one other member, stated Gaëlle Rivard-Piché, government director of the CDA Institute.
“I feel if america assault a NATO ally, it’s going be the tip of the alliance. I don’t see how the alliance would survive such an occasion. I don’t foresee a navy invasion, however who is aware of, proper?” she stated.
Since Trump has ratcheted up the rhetoric, a number of NATO allies, together with Canada, have come out in assist of Denmark and Greenland, with some European nations on Wednesday asserting they’re sending troops to Greenland to bolster Arctic safety.
Whereas Prime Minister Mark Carney has stated Gov. Gen. Mary Simon will go to at an unclear date, it’s not clear presently whether or not any Canadian troops is likely to be a part of that effort.
International Information has reached out to the Canadian Forces.
However Carney has famous just lately that NATO can present safety for the Danish territory because the alliance does for all members.
“We’re companions in NATO. It’s a mutual defence alliance. We will present that safety. As NATO, we will present safety for all of NATO, Greenland included,” Prime Minister Carney stated to reporters on the Canadian embassy in Paris final week.
“The way forward for Greenland is a choice for Greenland and Denmark solely — it’s their resolution.”
The response by each NATO and EU leaders is “anticipated,” Covey stated.
“Greenland is being threatened by america and it will injury the credibility of each the EU and NATO management if they didn’t brazenly assist Greenland,” she stated.
Nevertheless, member states additionally need to stroll the tightrope of not offending Trump, Rivard-Piché stated.
“It’s the stick and the carrot, however their stick isn’t very massive,” she stated, including that the U.S. nonetheless shoulders the single-largest share of the NATO price range.
In keeping with the Atlantic Council, the U.S. spends $928 billion on its defence price range, almost twice that of Europe and Canada mixed.
For Canada and its allies, years of reliance on the U.S. has weakened their very own defence capabilities for a state of affairs resembling this, Rivard-Piché stated.
“That was a warranted criticism in direction of Canada and the truth that we simply didn’t make investments as a lot in defence over the previous few many years, however now we have to step up,” she stated.
In June, Canada joined different NATO nations in pledging 5 per cent of its price range on defence spending by 2035. A big section of that’s more likely to go in direction of strengthening Canada’s capabilities within the Arctic, Rivard-Piché stated.
“We’re investing in our tech capabilities to extend our all-domain situational consciousness from the seabed to area. We’re investing in superior expertise and underwater expertise, in order that we will truly monitor the area and know what’s occurring,” she stated.
Denmark has stated Trump’s declare of imminent threats in opposition to Greenland from Russia and China’s are usually not correct.
“Saying that the area is crawling with Chinese language and Russian ships is simply not reflective of the truth,” Rivard-Piché stated.
The opportunity of a navy confrontation in Greenland is “extraordinarily distant” however “not zero,” Covey stated.
“Rationally, a navy confrontation in Greenland between NATO allies needs to be unthinkable, however the Trump administration has already demonstrated that they’re keen to behave in an unpredictable method,” she stated.
© 2026 International Information, a division of Corus Leisure Inc.
