Business is about to pick up at the 2024 U.S. Open, an event that has already seen a series of upsets, fire alarms delaying proceedings, players collapsing to the ground and even a ball-girl controversy.
With the first four rounds in the books, the eight surviving women begin their quarterfinal ties on Tuesday and Wednesday. Here, we rank the four matchups (least to most exciting) while taking into account head-to-head records, recent form, home-court advantage and other intangible factors.
Beatriz Haddad Maia (No. 22) vs. Karolina Muchova (Unseeded)
Muchova is the more accomplished of the two, making the 2023 French Open final and the 2023 U.S. Open semifinal before an injury layoff forced her to miss the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024.
The Czech star also has a 3-0 head-to-head record against Haddad Maia, with her last win over the Brazilian coming in three sets at the 2023 Cincinnati Masters. However, Haddad Maia is the in-form player who upset Caroline Wozniacki and World No. 15 Anna Kalinskaya in the previous two rounds. That said, Muchova has experience playing under the bright lights and is starting to round into her 2023 form.
Prediction: Muchova in three sets
Emma Navarro (No. 13) vs. Paula Badosa (No. 21)
The battle of the New Yorkers. Sort of. Badosa, a Spaniard, was born in the Big Apple, a fact she brought up after her fourth-round win over Wang Yafan. She feels a special connection with the city and is hopeful it will carry her to her first major semifinal.
The 26-year-old walked into Flushing Meadows with an impressive U.S. swing run that saw her capture the DC Open and reach the finals of the Cincinnati Open. Furthermore, she has won 14 of her last 16 hard-court matches and resembles the player from 2021 who appeared destined for greatness before a devastating back injury.
Despite being the higher seed and unseating defending champion Coco Gauff in the fourth round, Navarro, 23, walks into this as the underdog against a more seasoned competitor. Badosa also beat her at Rome (albeit on clay) earlier this year and knows what she’s up against.
Prediction: Badosa in three sets
Iga Swiatek (No. 1) vs. Jessica Pegula (No. 6)
This is a mouthwatering clash by all accounts. With neither woman dropping a set thus far, they’re both about to be tested for the first time.
While Swiatek, the World No. 1, is the favorite on paper, Pegula — a New Yorker — will feed off the electric Arthur Ashe crowd firmly in her corner. The Pole is 6-3 in their head-to-head encounters, with her most recent win in the WTA Finals last year.
However, Swiatek will have to contend with Pegula’s blistering service game — the American notched up a mind-blowing 80 percent win rate on her first serve in her win over Diana Shnaider in the previous round. Ultimately, Swiatek does have the better all-around game and rarely disappoints on the American hard courts.
Prediction: Swiatek in three sets
Aryna Sabalenka (No. 2) vs. Qinwen Zheng (No. 7)
For the third time within 12 months, the two top-ranked ladies will square off in a high-stakes major match. First, at the 2023 U.S. Open, Sabalenka dominated the Chinese star 6-1, 6-4 en route to a trip to the finals.
The rematch at the 2024 Australian Open had even higher stakes — a finals showdown at Rod Laver Arena. The outcome was nearly identical, with the Belarusian prevailing in straight sets.
Will the third time be the charm for Zheng, who is in the middle of a glorious year that saw her capture the gold medal at the Paris Olympics and reach a career-high ranking of World No. 7? So, why does Zheng believe she can finally conquer Sabalenka?
“I think I read the ball better on court and compared to one year ago,” Zheng said ahead of her rematch with Sabalenka, via AusOpen.com. “I feel I’m more powerful, but I know better how to control the power, when to use the power and when to hold down a bit trying to play with the opponent.”
The 21-year-old sensation is enjoying a career year, but it’s hard to bet against a proven champion.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets
