By SAM METZ
JERUSALEM (AP) — As U.S. forces mass within the Center East, Iran faces the specter of main strikes by the world’s strongest army, probably concentrating on its leaders, army, nuclear websites and demanding infrastructure.
Iran has nowhere close to the identical capabilities, and is much more weak after final 12 months’s warfare launched by Israel and up to date anti-government protests. Nevertheless it might nonetheless inflict ache on American forces and allies, and will really feel it has to if the Islamic Republic’s survival is at stake.
Whereas Iran suffered main losses final June, it nonetheless has tons of of missiles able to hitting Israel, based on Israel’s estimates. Iran boasts a a lot bigger arsenal of shorter-range missiles able to hitting U.S. bases in Gulf nations and offshore American forces, quickly to be joined by a second plane service.
Iran has beforehand threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway for the worldwide oil commerce, and claimed to have completed so partially throughout army drills final week.
Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Iran might sink American warships, and prime officers have mentioned a U.S. assault would spark regional warfare. Iran’s U.N. ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani mentioned “all bases, amenities and property of the hostile drive within the area” can be reliable targets.
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This picture supplied Thursday Feb. 19, 2026 by the Iranian army and dated Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2025, reveals navy ships conducting operations throughout a be a part of drill by Iranian and Russian forces within the Indian Ocean.(Masoud Nazari Mehrabi/Iranian Military through AP)
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This picture supplied Thursday Feb. 19, 2026 by the Iranian army and dated Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2025, reveals navy ships conducting operations throughout a be a part of drill by Iranian and Russian forces within the Indian Ocean.(Masoud Nazari Mehrabi/Iranian Military through AP)
Lingering capabilities
Israel carried out heavy strikes on Iran’s longer vary missile arsenals — in addition to its army management and nuclear program — through the 12-day warfare in June. The U.S. struck Iran’s most important nuclear websites, and President Donald Trump mentioned on the time that they’d been “obliterated.”
However the extent of the harm — and how a lot has been rebuilt — remains to be unknown. Iran continued to strike Israel with missiles and drones till the preventing stopped, more and more eluding its vaunted air defenses.
Iran’s shorter-range missile arsenal was largely untouched, mentioned Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran knowledgeable at Israel’s Institute for Nationwide Safety Research. That might make Iran extra inclined to retaliate in opposition to tens of 1000’s of U.S. forces primarily based in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere.
“Iran could also be weak. Nevertheless it nonetheless has methods to inflict actual ache on america — and way more incentive to attempt than it did earlier than,” Nate Swanson, head of the Atlantic Council’s Iran Technique Undertaking, wrote in Overseas Affairs. “Iranian officers really feel they should give Trump a bloody nostril or they’ll perpetually be in danger.”
Iran launched missiles at a U.S. base in Iraq after the killing of its prime normal in 2020 and focused a U.S. base in Qatar close to the top of final 12 months’s warfare. These strikes, which appeared to have been telegraphed upfront, brought about harm however no fatalities, as early warning methods and missile defenses swung into motion.
Iran might additionally perform assaults farther afield. The nation has been accused of utilizing legal gangs and armed teams to plan or perform assaults around the globe, together with on dissidents, Israelis and Jewish targets.
Studying curve
Final 12 months’s Israeli strikes killed a number of prime generals and nuclear scientists, revealing main vulnerabilities. At one level, Trump mentioned the U.S. knew the place Khamenei was hiding, calling him an ” simple goal.”
Contemporary off the seize of Venezuelan chief Nicolás Maduro, Trump might contemplate decapitation strikes geared toward bringing down Iran’s decades-old Shiite theocracy, which he lately mentioned “can be the perfect factor that would occur.”
The Iranians have had eight months to be taught from their errors and agency up inside safety. Citrinowicz mentioned there are doubtless contingency plans if Khamenei have been to be killed. Fairly than naming a single successor, energy would most likely shift to a small committee till hostilities subsided.
Specialists say the dying of the 86-year-old Khamenei, who has dominated Iran for over three many years, wouldn’t in itself spell the top of the Islamic Republic. Energy may finally move to a member of his inside circle, because it did in Venezuela, or to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
US allies might be targets
American allies are clearly involved a couple of regional warfare. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a heavy response to any Iranian assault on Israel.
Arab Gulf states have lengthy considered Iran with concern and leaned on the U.S. for protection, however don’t wish to be drawn into warfare. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which host 1000’s of American troops, have mentioned they wouldn’t permit their airspace for use.
An Arab Gulf diplomat mentioned regional leaders have been speaking to Iran and america to avert warfare, warning that it might have extreme penalties, together with a spike in oil costs. The diplomat spoke on situation of anonymity to debate the delicate, closed-door talks.
Iran has its personal allies, together with Houthi rebels in Yemen, armed teams in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas within the Palestinian territories. However its self-described Axis of Resistance suffered main losses within the preventing that rippled throughout the area after Hamas’ October 2023 assault from Gaza.
A worldwide stress level
One other close-in goal might permit Iran to inflict wider ache.
Round one-fifth of all traded oil passes by way of the Strait of Hormuz, simply off Iran’s shore. The U.S. Navy is dedicated to maintaining it open, however Iranian assaults might disrupt commerce, because the far-weaker Houthis managed to do within the Pink Sea for a lot of the previous two years.
Iranian officers haven’t explicitly threatened to focus on the strait within the present standoff, however Iranian forces partially closed it final week throughout army drills, signaling it might be weak if warfare breaks out.
Different crucial oil property would even be inside vary. In 2019, strikes on oil infrastructure quickly halved Saudi Arabia’s manufacturing. Yemen’s Houthis claimed duty, however U.S. officers later blamed Iran.
The nuclear query
After initially threatening army motion over Iran’s killing of protesters, Trump shifted consideration to its nuclear program, warning that “unhealthy issues” would occur if Iran doesn’t comply with a deal. The 2 sides are set to carry one other spherical of oblique talks in Geneva on Thursday.
Iran has at all times mentioned its nuclear program is peaceable, whereas the U.S. and others have lengthy suspected that Tehran intends to finally develop weapons. After Trump scrapped a 2015 nuclear settlement, Iran ramped up its enrichment of uranium, build up a stockpile of near-weapons grade materials.
Iran’s greatest websites have been hit by U.S. and Israeli strikes, inflicting vital harm above floor. Nevertheless it’s unclear whether or not enriched uranium was spirited away earlier than they have been hit or buried underground. Iran says it has been unable to complement since then, nevertheless it has additionally barred inspections.
Iran remains to be believed to be a protracted methods from growing a usable nuclear weapon, however radioactive materials might pose a threat within the occasion of widespread strikes.
Related Press author Samy Magdy contributed reporting from Cairo.
