- FMCG gross sales worth for 2025 rise 5.7% to R683 billion
- Conventional commerce channels rising at a sooner tempo than trendy commerce
- Winner-takes-all alternative for agile FMCG manufacturers in conventional commerce channels
NielsenIQ (NIQ) South Africa has launched its State of the Retail Nation evaluation* for the calendar yr of 2025, exhibiting wholesome progress in retail gross sales worth and quantity. South African customers spent almost R683.3 billion on fast-moving shopper items (FMCG) by way of conventional and trendy commerce channels in the course of the yr below assessment. This represents year-over-year worth progress of 5.7%, with unit gross sales growing by 6.7%.
“Throughout 2025, South Africa’s FMCG sector confirmed resilience in navigating persistent headwinds equivalent to excessive unemployment and low financial progress, whereas profiting from tailwinds equivalent to a stronger rand and moderating inflation,” says Zak Haeri, Managing Director for NIQ in South Africa.
“We noticed real momentum in 2025 as actual wages improved and spending lifted throughout most classes. However the risky geopolitical local weather, a backdrop of commerce tensions and spiking costs for commodities equivalent to cocoa and low may problem FMCG manufacturers and retailers within the months to come back.”
FMCG market: Snacks remains to be the star performer
Meals, the biggest class, was up 6.3% to almost R246.4 billion for the yr and noticed a 5.9% gross sales quantity improve. The fastest-growing segments for the total yr have been non-alcoholic drinks (up 7.5% to almost R96 billion) and snacking (up 7.9% to R50.2 billion). These classes additionally noticed spectacular gross sales quantity progress, with non-alcoholic drinks up 7.1% and snacking up 13.5% – indicating unit gross sales progress over and above inflation.
Most different key classes additionally delivered respectable progress:
| Sector | Worth | Gross sales worth progress | Gross sales quantity progress | ||||
| Private care and well being | R78.4 billion | 5.1% | 3.3% | ||||
| Liquor | R137.8 billion | 4.2% | 4.6% | ||||
| House and pet | R34.9 billion | 3.8% | 1.6% | ||||
| Child meals and care | R14.2 billion | 0.9% | 3.2% | ||||
| Tobacco | R25.1 billion | 5.6% | 6.7% |
Conventional commerce outperforms trendy commerce
The majority of FMCG retail gross sales for the yr – R513.2 billion – went by way of trendy commerce channels equivalent to grocery store chains, franchised grocery shops and ecommerce platforms. Conventional commerce channels (which embody unbiased superettes, spaza retailers and taverns) racked up round R170.1 billion in gross sales.
Nevertheless, gross sales progress in conventional commerce is outpacing trendy commerce. Haeri says: “Conventional commerce has bounced again following the disruption of the COVID-19 lockdown years. Comfort is one purpose for conventional commerce’s outperformance throughout 2025. With greater than 140,000 conventional commerce retailers versus round 11,000 trendy commerce retailers, conventional merchants provide unmatched accessibility, particularly for consumers in distant and rural areas.
“Conventional commerce can also be benefitting from a development of households going to the retailers extra usually, shopping for smaller packs and buying much less per journey to the retailers. With many conventional merchants leveraging their networks to purchase bulk from wholesalers and distributors, they’re extra value aggressive with trendy commerce than they have been earlier than. On this context, consumers have much less incentive to journey to bigger shops to make massive purchases.”
Personal label share dwindles as conventional commerce expands
Subdued progress within the trendy commerce sector contributed to a slight decline in personal label share of whole retail gross sales. Excluding the tobacco and liquor classes, personal labels accounted for round 17.7% of FMCG gross sales worth in 2025, down from18.3% in 2024. Personal label gross sales worth grew 4.1% in 2025 to almost R106 billion, in comparison with gross sales progress of 8.1% the yr earlier than.
This softening in personal label momentum additionally comes as unbiased and branded gamers ramp up promotions, innovate extra aggressively and prolong distribution, which all contributes to extra competitors on cabinets.
“The distinctive progress in conventional commerce is a compelling alternative for agile FMCG manufacturers,” says Haeri. “However profitable right here is a distinct ball sport to trendy commerce. In trendy commerce, dozens of SKUs can get a fair proportion of the worth. In conventional commerce, it’s a winner-takes-all dynamic. If you’re not one of many prime manufacturers on the shelf, it’s sport over.”
2026 outlook: Turbulence forward?
Trying to the remainder of 2026, Haeri says that it will not be shocking to see shopper inflation rise once more on account of provide chain pressures and vitality prices, significantly if the warfare within the Center East is extended. FMCG retailers and producers ought to make sure that they’re structured to reply quickly if headwinds emerge or tailwinds strengthen.
“You can not predict exterior shocks, however you possibly can management how rapidly you reply and the way resilient your provide chain is. Promotions and pack structure are vital levers in a price-sensitive market like South Africa,” says Haeri. “Successful is about managing each precise worth and perceived worth. Robust manufacturers have extra room to maneuver.”
* Information relies on NIQ’s complete *Retail Measurement Service (RMS), which is the biggest retail (grocery) knowledge supply within the nation and the one foreign money utilized by all of South Africa’s main retailers. This benchmark knowledge contains greater than 11,000 branded shops (e.g., supermarkets and storage forecourts) and greater than 140,000 unbiased shops (e.g., spazas and taverns) throughout South Africa’s 9 provinces and measures greater than 80% of all retail grocery transactions.
Supply: NielsenIQ (NIQ).
Photograph credit score: AI.
