When the Federal Reserve closes its latest policy meeting Wednesday afternoon, the widespread expectation is that it will announce the first cut to its main interest rate in more than four years.
It would be a momentous event, closing the door on a run where the Fed jacked its federal funds rate to a two-decade high in hopes of slowing the economy enough to stifle the worst inflation in generations. Now that inflation has eased back significantly from its peak two summers ago, the Fed has said it can turn more of its attention toward protecting the job market and overall economy, which have already begun slowing under the weight of higher rates.
The only question is how much the Fed will cut rates by to do so, which can prove to be a tricky balance. Lowering rates would ease the brakes off the economy by making it easier for U.S. businesses and households to borrow. But it could also offer more fuel for inflation.
Making things more complicated, some critics say the Federal Reserve is moving too late to protect the economy and may have missed the window to prevent a recession. Others, meanwhile, are saying it will need to be careful about cutting rates too much because of the possibility that inflation remains stubbornly higher than it has in recent decades.
What time is the Fed meeting today?
The Federal Reserve will conclude its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, which is expected to include a decision to cut interest rates.
The announcement on a likely rate cut would come at 2 p.m. ET.
Following the announcement on an interest rate cut, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
WATCH LIVE TODAY: Press conference with #FOMC Chair Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET: https://t.co/1uJrua5qsHhttps://t.co/FJa6TbkDMt pic.twitter.com/87g5NJITsz
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) September 18, 2024
For now, the bet on Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will deliver a larger-than-usual cut to interest rates Wednesday afternoon. Traders are pricing in a roughly 60% probability that it will bypass the traditional-sized move of a quarter of a percentage point and jump directly to a half point, according to data from CME Group.
Treasury yields have been sinking since the spring on excitement about coming cuts to interest rates, but they firmed a bit Wednesday amid the debate about how big the afternoon’s move will be.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.67% from 3.65% late Tuesday. The two-year yield, which more closely follows expectations for Fed action, rose to 3.62% from 3.60%.
