Will Kalonzo’s heckling at Sifuna’s occasion set off one other political U-turn forward of 2027?
Wiper Patriotic Entrance chief Kalonzo Musyoka at a previous occasion. PHOTO/UGC.
By PATRICK MAYOYO
The heckling of the Wiper Patriotic Entrance chief Kalonzo Musyoka, in the course of the inauguration of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi Motion headquarters in Lavington, Nairobi, on 20 October 2026 has re-opened an uncomfortable query about his political future: what precisely are his subsequent strikes because the opposition struggles to establish a single presidential candidate to problem President William Ruto in 2027?
What seemed to be an extraordinary political gathering rapidly became a revealing second within the more and more aggressive battle for the United Opposition’s presidential ticket. Musyoka attended the occasion alongside a number of opposition leaders, together with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and DAP-Ok get together chief Eugene Wamalwa.
Nonetheless, the reception Musyoka acquired uncovered the rising rivalry between his presidential ambitions and the rising political affect of Sifuna.
The incident was notably vital as a result of Musyoka has spent a lot of his political profession cultivating relationships, negotiating alliances and positioning himself as a consensus candidate. But, because the 2027 election approaches, the veteran politician is more and more confronted with the chance that his seniority and political expertise could not assure him the opposition’s presidential ticket.
Opposition politics has entered a brand new section following the emergence of Sifuna as a possible presidential contender. A number of opinion polls performed in 2026 have positioned the Nairobi Senator among the many main opposition politicians able to difficult Ruto, with some surveys suggesting that he has overtaken Musyoka.
This represents a big growth for the Wiper chief, who had beforehand positioned himself as one of many strongest opposition presidential contenders following the loss of life of Raila Odinga in October 2025.
For many years, Musyoka has cultivated a picture of a affected person political negotiator, counting on his expertise, regional affect and nationwide relationships to stay related in successive political formations. Sifuna’s rising reputation, notably amongst youthful voters, presents a distinct sort of political problem.
The strain grew to become evident when Wamalwa, whereas addressing the gathering, declared Sifuna a presidential candidate. Musyoka instantly objected, arguing that such a declaration was untimely as a result of Sifuna remained a celebration chief till 13 November, when he would qualify to be known as a presidential candidate. The change prompted sections of the gang to chant Sifuna’s identify.
Musyoka then requested whether or not the viewers needed Sifuna to turn into President. The response was an emphatic sure. The Wiper chief reiterated that Sifuna was at present a celebration chief and would turn into a presidential candidate on 13 November when he holds his get together’s Nationwide Delegates Conference (NDC), insisting that this was the right process.
Whereas his response may very well be interpreted as an try to uphold political and procedural self-discipline, the gang’s response uncovered the fragile place he occupies throughout the rising opposition association.
For a politician of his stature, the episode was undoubtedly uncomfortable. Extra importantly, it raised questions on whether or not he’s ready to just accept the chance {that a} youthful political determine might turn into the opposition’s most well-liked presidential candidate.
Curiously, this isn’t the primary time Musyoka has skilled heckling at a significant political gathering forward of a Basic Election.
On 9 July 2007, throughout a mammoth ODM-Kenya rally at Tononoka Grounds in Mombasa, he was heckled amid disagreements throughout the opposition motion.
That incident preceded his determination to desert the United Opposition association and launch an unbiased presidential marketing campaign below the slogan Kupita Kati Kati, which means passing by means of the center.
Musyoka went forward along with his presidential bid, ending third behind Kibaki and Odinga within the disputed December 2007 election.
The circumstances surrounding the election subsequently led to the post-election violence of 2007–2008, which claimed greater than 1,000 lives and displaced roughly 500,000 individuals.
In January 2008, Kibaki appointed Musyoka Vice-President and Minister for House Affairs within the Grand Coalition Authorities.
The appointment attracted appreciable political controversy as a result of Musyoka had completed third within the presidential contest however was subsequently rewarded with the nation’s second-highest govt workplace.
His political manoeuvre additionally earned him the moniker ‘watermelon’, a reference to perceptions that his political loyalties have been troublesome to outline. Almost twenty years later, the heckling at Sifuna’s headquarters has revived reminiscences of that episode.
The query now could be whether or not historical past is about to repeat itself, with Musyoka utilizing the incident as a chance to rethink his place throughout the United Opposition and presumably pursue one other political association.
Wiper Patriotic Entrance chief Kalonzo Musyoka with a supporter at a previous occasion. PHOTO/UGC.
There isn’t a established proof that the incident was stage-managed. However, the circumstances surrounding it have generated hypothesis about whether or not sure political pursuits may gain advantage from Musyoka’s attainable departure from the opposition.
One difficulty attracting consideration is the velocity with which politicians related to President Ruto’s broad-based authorities condemned the remedy of Musyoka.
A number of UDA and ODM figures, together with Cupboard Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi, John Mbadi and Aden Duale, reportedly shared movies of the incident or criticised the gang’s conduct.
Some government-aligned politicians have subsequently urged Musyoka to desert the United Opposition and work with the broad-based authorities in help of Ruto’s re-election.
Their intervention raises an fascinating political query: why are politicians aligned with the President so involved in regards to the remedy of an opposition chief?
The plain rationalization is that Musyoka stays an influential politician whose help might considerably have an effect on the steadiness of energy in 2027.
His conventional Ukambani constituency is politically vital, whereas his expertise in authorities and nationwide coalition-building makes him a gorgeous potential accomplice.
There are additionally studies of a attainable political understanding between Ruto’s UDA and Musyoka, allegedly facilitated by means of former Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama, a member of UDA who just lately met the Wiper chief.
The reported proposal entails Musyoka contesting the presidency in 2027 earlier than working with Ruto by means of a attainable coalition authorities association after the election.
These claims needs to be handled cautiously within the absence of a publicly confirmed settlement. Nonetheless, the reported contacts have intensified hypothesis about the potential for a political deal between the 2 leaders.
A rapprochement wouldn’t essentially be unprecedented in Kenyan politics, the place ideological variations have ceaselessly been subordinated to electoral calculations and negotiations over authorities positions.
Musyoka’s relationship with Sifuna’s political formation can be difficult by disagreements over political branding and the proposed use of the identify Ukombozi.
Earlier than deciding on The Equitable Celebration (TEP), Sifuna’s political associates reportedly explored the potential for rebranding the late Cyrus Jirongo’s United Democratic Celebration (UDP) as Ukombozi Individuals’s Celebration (UPP).
Nonetheless, the identify grew to become the topic of a competing political declare after Musyoka’s Azimio la Umoja coalition moved in direction of adopting The Ukombozi Alliance (TUA). The dispute stays the topic of authorized proceedings.
Though the disagreement could seem administrative, political get together names and identities carry appreciable symbolic worth in an election cycle. They assist outline political actions, talk their message and set up possession of explicit political narratives.
The competition due to this fact displays a deeper battle over who will lead the rising opposition motion and command the political house related to political change.
It must be famous that when Musyoka disagreed with Raila following the Tononoka rally heckling, he fled with the certificates of ODM-Kenya forcing the late ODM get together chief to hunt another ODM get together.
To grasp the importance of the present developments, it’s essential to understand Musyoka’s political background.
Born on 24 December 1953 in Tseikuru, present-day Kitui County, he’s amongst Kenya’s longest-serving politicians. He studied legislation on the College of Nairobi earlier than acquiring a postgraduate diploma from the Kenya College of Legislation and pursuing additional research in enterprise administration.
He entered Parliament in 1985 after successful the Kitui North by-election, having misplaced his first try in 1983.
His political rise was fast. He served as Assistant Minister for Works, Housing and Bodily Planning, Deputy Speaker of the Nationwide Meeting and KANU’s Nationwide Organising Secretary in the course of the Moi administration.
Time to loosen up for the Wiper Celebration chief. PHOTO/UGC.
In 1993, he was appointed Minister for Overseas Affairs and Worldwide Cooperation, a place that gave him worldwide publicity by means of diplomatic engagements and regional peace initiatives. He subsequently served in different Cupboard positions, together with Schooling and Tourism.
Nonetheless, Musyoka’s presidential ambitions finally introduced him into battle with KANU’s succession preparations forward of the 2002 Basic Election. He left the ruling get together and joined the Raila led Liberal Democratic Celebration (LDP), which grew to become a part of the NARC coalition that introduced Kibaki to energy.
His first presidential marketing campaign in 2007 finally led to his appointment as Vice-President, a place he held till 2013.
This expertise established him as one of many few Kenyan politicians to have occupied the nation’s second-highest govt workplace whereas sustaining a permanent ambition to turn into President.
Maybe probably the most consequential political determination of Musyoka’s profession was his repeated willingness to help Odinga’s presidential campaigns.
In 2013, he accepted the place of working mate below CORD. In 2017, he once more grew to become Odinga’s working mate below NASA.
The second association was notably vital as a result of a memorandum of understanding signed on 30 April 2017 reportedly offered that Odinga would serve one presidential time period and endorse Musyoka as his successor in 2022.
Nonetheless, the political rapprochement between Odinga and Kibaki’s successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, following the March 2018 Handshake difficult the succession association.
When Odinga finally contested the 2022 election below Azimio, he chosen Martha Karua as his working mate, successfully ending Musyoka’s hopes of turning into deputy president.
Musyoka initially pursued his personal presidential ambitions however finally deserted his candidature on 2 June 2022 and rejoined Azimio. The coalition subsequently misplaced to Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua.
The expertise uncovered a recurring weak spot in Musyoka’s political technique: repeatedly inserting his presidential ambitions within the fingers of one other chief.
Though his alliances with Odinga gave him nationwide visibility and entry to wider political constituencies, additionally they left him repeatedly ready for a chance that by no means materialised.
Odinga’s loss of life in October 2025 basically modified the political panorama, creating a chance for Musyoka to pursue the presidency with out having to barter his place alongside his longtime political accomplice.
That’s the reason the present competitors with Sifuna is especially vital. Musyoka could contemplate the 2027 election his greatest remaining alternative to understand an ambition he has pursued for many years.
Regardless of the current heckling, my evaluation is that Musyoka is unlikely to desert the United Opposition with out exhausting the out there alternatives for a negotiated political settlement.
His political character has been formed by session, persistence and coalition-building. He understands that the presidential contest requires greater than the help of Ukambani voters.
The 2026 opinion polls illustrate each his political strengths and vulnerabilities. TIFA positioned him at 19 per cent in Could earlier than recording 13 per cent in June. Politrack and Analysis 8020 subsequently positioned him at 10.3 per cent and 11 per cent respectively in September, whereas Mizani Africa reported a considerably greater 27.5 per cent.
Though the surveys are usually not instantly comparable, they exhibit that his nationwide help stays aggressive however unsure. He due to this fact wants a broader political coalition to problem Ruto successfully.
An settlement with Gachagua might join his Ukambani constituency with Mount Kenya political networks. Cooperation with Sifuna might assist him attain youthful voters, whereas an understanding with different opposition leaders might broaden his nationwide attraction.
The problem is that these potential companions even have their very own political ambitions. Consequently, Musyoka should resolve whether or not to insist on the presidential ticket, settle for a negotiated different or pursue an unbiased marketing campaign.
There may be, nonetheless, one other chance that deserves critical consideration. If Musyoka decides to help one other opposition presidential candidate in 2027, he might negotiate a transparent political understanding that positions him because the coalition’s joint presidential candidate in 2032 ought to the opposition lose to Ruto.
Kalonzo Musyoka addressing a gathering. PHOTO/UGC.
At 72, he nonetheless has a chance to form the nation’s political future past the subsequent Basic Election. Supporting a single opposition candidate in 2027 might additionally assist set up a legacy as one of many politicians who positioned nationwide pursuits above private ambition in an effort to finish Ruto’s presidency after one time period.
Such an association would require significantly stronger ensures than these he reportedly relied upon in his earlier partnership with Odinga.
It could additionally require him to withstand the temptation of short-term political rewards, notably appointments or guarantees of positions in a attainable coalition authorities.
The choice could be to contest independently, even when doing so dangers splitting opposition help and bettering Ruto’s probabilities of re-election.
Kenyan politics is filled with examples of politicians who’ve dramatically modified their positions after getting into authorities. A number of ODM leaders who beforehand criticised Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza administration have turn into enthusiastic supporters of the broad-based authorities, demonstrating how rapidly political alliances can remodel.
Musyoka should resolve whether or not he desires to comply with the same path or distinguish himself by means of consistency and a clearly articulated political imaginative and prescient.
The heckling at Sifuna’s occasion could finally show to have been nothing greater than an unlucky episode at a politically charged gathering. However its significance lies in what it reveals in regards to the rising competitors for management throughout the opposition.
For Musyoka, the selection is not merely between remaining buddies with Sifuna or pursuing the presidency independently. It’s about defining the political legacy he desires to depart behind.
Having served in Parliament for many years, occupied senior Cupboard positions and held the Vice-Presidency, he has amassed appreciable political expertise. What stays unsure is whether or not he can convert that have into an unbiased nationwide electoral motion.
My evaluation is that Musyoka will finally help whichever candidate the United Opposition settles on, offered there’s a credible and mutually acceptable political understanding.
However he should negotiate from a place of power and be sure that any settlement protects his political pursuits somewhat than decreasing him to a different presidential working mate and not using a clear succession association.
The 2027 election presents him a chance to exhibit political maturity, statesmanship and a capability to place the nation’s future forward of private ambition.
If he succeeds in serving to unite the opposition and defeat Ruto, he might safe a legacy that goes past his unsuccessful presidential campaigns.
If he chooses one other political detour, nonetheless, the acquainted nickname of ‘watermelon’ could as soon as once more dominate the political dialog.
Finally, the query isn’t whether or not Musyoka can survive one other political storm. His 4 a long time in Kenyan politics have already demonstrated that he can.
The actual query is whether or not, after repeatedly stepping apart for different presidential candidates, he’s lastly ready to decide that defines his legacy somewhat than merely prolongs his political survival.
The author is an editor at EYEWITNESS MEDIA GROUP.
