Per the team’s official Week 16 injury report, Mahomes was a full participant at practice on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of Saturday’s game between 2024 playoff teams.
Starting Mahomes might not be worth the risk, but Brown’s arrival ahead of Kansas City’s postseason run is a positive development.
The Chiefs (13-1) and Texans (9-5) have already clinched their divisions, but the Week 16 tilt could alter the playoff seeding.
Kansas City holds a two-game lead over the Bills (11-3) for home-field advantage and a wild-card bye, while Houston is only a game behind the Steelers (10-4) for the AFC’s No. 3 seed. That would give Houston a more favorable wild-card opponent and avoid a potential rematch against the Chiefs until the AFC championship game.
Getting back Brown would be welcome against a strong Texans secondary.
Houston has an interception in five consecutive games, including five against Lions quarterback Jared Goff in Week 10 and three on Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa last Sunday.
The Texans rank fourth in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (537), giving Kelce a difficult individual matchup (h/t Pro Football Reference).
That’s where Brown can help Mahomes or backup Carson Wentz. Only the Falcons have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than the Texans this season.
According to Sumer Sports data, the Chiefs use 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) at the league’s fourth-lowest rate (44.9 percent). Kansas City often deploys multiple tight ends to compensate for its receiving depth woes, with one or two tight ends featured in 46.8 percent of its 930 offensive snaps.
With Brown, Worthy and De’Andre Hopkins available, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid might use more three-wide receiver sets.
Houston is seventh in expected points added per pass on defense against 11-personnel, but its ability to win one-on-one matchups would be better tested with Brown playing.
For a 13-1 team, Kansas City is surprisingly vulnerable. In addition to a hobbled Mahomes, 10 of its wins have come by seven points or less.
With Brown expected to make his season debut, the Chiefs should receive a needed boost.
