Besides Ohio State’s Ryan Day, is any College Football Playoff head coach under more pressure than Penn State’s James Franklin?
The Nittany Lions are 13-28 against ranked opponents under Franklin, including 1-2 this season.
Six-seed Penn State (11-2) has hit a ceiling, with Franklin’s teams consistently outplayed in big games.
Saturday’s CFP first-round game against the Mustangs represents a chance for Franklin to change the narrative surrounding his program.
Quarterback Drew Allar is one of the best starts in the CFP field, and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen give the Nittany Lions one of the playoff’s best backfield tandems.
Tight end Tyler Warren should be extremely valuable.
Not only is he a capable runner — Warren has 23 rushing attempts during the regular season, gaining 191 yards (8.3 yards per carry) and four touchdowns — but he’s also one of the country’s best receiving tight ends, entering the playoff with 88 receptions, 1,062 yards, and six touchdowns.
As CBS Sports noted, SMU has struggled against tight ends, ranking 129th in FBS in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (627). Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki should use the Mustangs’ deficiencies to his advantage and make Warren the offense’s focal point.
The Nittany Lions have a golden path to the semifinals. The winner of SMU-Penn State will play 3-seed Boise State (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl.
If Franklin squanders this opportunity, it will be a long offseason in Happy Valley.
However, Penn State’s 11-year coach isn’t the only one who will be under pressure.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings will likely be hounded by Penn State defensive ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton.
Carter leads Penn State in sacks (10), while Dennis-Sutton leads the Nittany Lions with eight quarterback hurries.
Jennings is arguably the best CFP quarterback against pressure, and he must be just as strong for 11-seed SMU (11-2) to pull off the road upset.
According to CFB Stats, 75.8 percent of Penn State’s sacks came at home. CBS Sports shared that the Nittany Lions are 14th in the country in pressure rate (38.5 percent)
Per Pro Football Focus data, Jennings has eight touchdowns when pressured, the most among CFP quarterbacks. His adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for receiver drops, is 65.8 percent, the third-best.
The Mustangs are among the best in the country at starting fast, which could quickly diminish Penn State’s home advantage.
According to College Football Insiders, the Mustangs rank sixth in the country in first-quarter scoring (10.2 points per game). They play quickly, especially on the road. Team Rankings data shows that SMU runs a play once every 22.1 seconds away from home, the country’s eighth-fastest rate.
The Nittany Lions were pushed around in their two losses, allowing Ohio State to burn the final five minutes of their 20-13 Week 9 loss with an 11-play drive. In the Big Ten championship game, Oregon scored 45 points and had nine pass plays gain at least 15 yards.
SMU’s defense is better than advertised. According to CFB Stats data, it has played 912 snaps. Only Western Kentucky and UNLV, teams that have already played in their bowl games, have played more defensive snaps.
Meanwhile, like SMU, Penn State has played 13 games but only 788 defensive snaps.
The teams are tied for ninth in yards allowed per play (4.65), and SMU is second in yards per play allowed on the road and neutral site games (4.34 yards), only trailing Texas.
If SMU jumps out to an early lead, that could mean trouble for Penn State.
