The Sabres are finding ways to hit new lows. On the tail of a 14-year playoff drought, the team is in the middle of a 13-game losing streak. They’ve been outscored 54-to-28 and outshot 378-to-355 along the way — reigniting the all-too-common conversation of which Sabres forward may be to blame. It’s a familiar spot for clinging Sabres fans, who saw Ryan O’Reilly traded away after a 25-win season in 2017-18; Jack Eichel traded in 2021 after a 5-3-1 start, and Casey Mittelstadt traded at last year’s trade deadline after a 7-6-0 record where three wins required extra time. This time around, it’s Dylan Cozens being pulled into the spotlight, but moving him out won’t be the piece to solve Buffalo’s skid.
The reasons why a big move likely won’t be the fix are convoluted but not complicated. Buffalo has scored the fewest (2.15) and allowed the most (4.08) goals per game since the start of their losing streak on Nov. 27. That’s partly thanks to a forward group that’s largely unengaged. Only five Sabres forwards have recorded 20 or more hits since the start of their skid. Of them, only two have scored five or more points: Tage Thompson (seven points and 21 hits) and Cozens (seven points and 29 hits).
Coincidentally, Cozens has been on the ice for the second-most even-strength goals (9) of any Sabres forward, behind only Jason Zucker (10). He’s proven able to step up and make an impact when the pieces around him are quiet, helping him maintain a proud role as Buffalo’s second-line center.
Cozens maintaining his top-six role should be enough incentive to hold onto him — after all, no other Sabres are earning the second-line role. But even if Buffalo thought now was the best time to sell their 23-year-old, top-six centerman capable of scoring 20 goals and playing 20 minutes — the trade market for young forwards has been brutally harsh this year. Not even prior draft precedent can generate significant returns, with the Rangers only receiving defender William Borgen and a handful of draft picks for 2019 second-overall pick Kaapo Kakko. Philip Tomasino, Lars Eller, and Vasily Podkolzin all returned even less, netting only mid-round draft picks.
You have to go back to last season’s deadline to find a notable forward-for-forward swap: when the Penguins sent star scorer
Jake Guentzel to Carolina for Michael Bunting and a litany of top prospects. Since then, only Pierre-Luc Dubois’ move to Washington represents any notable return for middling forwards, sending goaltender Darcy Kuemper to Los Angeles. The likelihood of Cozens sparking a big-package deal or swaying a team to move on from their capable starter is slim-to-non mid-season.
That’s to say trading Cozens would do little more for Buffalo than punt away an already-down year with the hopes that they receive enough draft capital to make it worth it. The move could give rookie Jiri Kulich and hot acquisition Ryan McLeod a chance at more ice time. To his credit, McLeod is tied with Cozens in scoring — each with 15 points in 34 games — and has posted much better results defensively. But his mark on the top-six wouldn’t counteract the depleted depth behind him unless one of Kulich, Tyson Kozak, or Sam Lafferty suddenly found a new stride.
More importantly, moving on from Cozens would mean moving on from a former top-10 pick who, only two seasons ago, posted 31 goals and 68 points at the age of 21. That year stands as a flash in the pan now, but it’s also Cozens’ show of strength when he’s part of an offense that maintains their strength throughout the season. With O’Reilly winning a Conn Smythe and Selke Trophy after his move, Eichel now a superstar in Vegas, and Mittelstadt thriving in Colorado’s top-six, the Sabres seem cursed to continue moving on from impactful forwards before they find their groove. Shipping out Cozens on the second year of an incredibly team-friendly seven-year, $47.7M contract — with no remaining signing bonuses — risks setting the Sabres up to repeat their sins.
The Sabres need a change. They can’t win a hockey game and have too much talent in their prospect pool to continue as basement dwellers with Stanley Cup aspirations. But in the heat of a prolonged skid, their sights are again trained on the second-line center. With each trade of a top forward, Buffalo moves on from younger and younger players. Now is a chance for the team not to repeat the errors of their old ways and finally find a new way to shake up their floundering roster.
