As Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports pointed out, NFL writers, reporters and fans have recently debated whether or not Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has essentially already won the MVP over Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.
For a piece by ESPN’s Turron Davenport on Thursday, 14 analysts voted “on the top players in the MVP race through 15 weeks.” Davenport explained why Allen is the leader in the clubhouse heading into this weekend.
“Allen has made a strong case for himself with consecutive 300-yard passing performances and five total passing touchdowns over the past two games,” Davenport said. “The dual-threat quarterback also rushed for 150 total yards and five touchdowns in that span, becoming the first player in NFL history to record multiple passing touchdowns and rushing scores in back-to-back games.”
Per Pro Football Reference, Allen began Thursday leading the NFL with a 79.3 adjusted QBR for the season. StatMuse shows that Jackson shares the league lead of 37 combined passing and rushing scores, but Allen is second with 36.
However, Jackson also leads the NFL with an 8.4% touchdown percentage, an average of 8.9 yards gained per pass attempt and a 120.7 passer rating. While DraftKings Sportsbook listed Allen as an overwhelming betting favorite at -900 odds to earn MVP over Jackson (+550), the stats suggest the race is closer than some think.
The 11-3 Bills have already clinched the AFC East title and will finish the season with two games against the woeful New England Patriots (3-11) and a home contest versus the lowly New York Jets (4-10). Meanwhile, 9-5 Baltimore trails the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers by a single game in the AFC North standings. Baltimore fell to Pittsburgh earlier this season, but those two sides will meet again Saturday.
The Ravens then play at the 9-5 Houston Texans on Christmas Day before Baltimore wraps things up with a home game against the already-eliminated Cleveland Browns (3-11).
“Two of the Ravens’ final three games come against AFC North opponents,” Davenport added. “He will have a good opportunity to strengthen his MVP case if he can help Baltimore pass the 10-4 Steelers for the divisional title.”
In short, those who believe Jackson will produce three stellar outings to end the regular season may want to take a flier on his MVP odds before Saturday’s NFL action gets underway.
