Over the past few weeks, several teams holding playoff spots in the NFL have shown glimpses of who they truly are.
Although plenty can change by the end of the season, Yardbarker is examining each current playoff team’s potential as a Super Bowl contender based on its roster, past performance, and, to a lesser extent, future outlook.
With that in mind, here’s a look at which AFC playoff teams are contenders and pretenders.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
Whether you prefer to call it luck or black magic, the Chiefs have something special. Kansas City clinched a playoff spot on Friday after recovering a botched snap by the Las Vegas Raiders, who were in field goal range, with 15 seconds remaining to secure a wild 19-17 home win.
While they’ve dealt with their share of key injuries, there’s no denying that the Chiefs don’t look the part of an 11-1 team. Not only are they averaging their second-fewest points per game in the Patrick Mahomes era (24.1), but they’re also racking up their fewest yards per contest (341.6).
Additionally, Kansas City’s +54 point differential is the worst among teams that have recorded 11 wins through the first 13 weeks of the regular season since 2000, per The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia. To put that in perspective, the other 22 teams that achieved this feat had an average point differential of +139.
Regardless of whether their opponent is one of the NFL’s elite teams or a bottom dweller, the Chiefs continue to find themselves in one-score games. On the surface, this might make Kansas City seem like a pretender. However, during last season’s title run and through seemingly every win this year, the Chiefs proved that they can rise to the occasion when the stakes are the highest. As long as they have Mahomes, they’ll remain a Super Bowl front-runner.
Verdict: Contender
Buffalo Bills (9-2)
In a season where they were expected to fall off and the New York Jets were finally supposed to snap their lengthy playoff drought, the Bills are once again the team to beat in the AFC East. A fifth consecutive division title may be the most satisfying for Buffalo, considering it had to overhaul its roster this past offseason, parting ways with several longtime contributors.
There was no shortage of uncertainties surrounding the Bills entering the season, especially regarding their receiving corps. Only one wide receiver on the roster had previously caught a pass from QB Josh Allen, but it hasn’t been an issue since the two-time Pro Bowler has played like an MVP front-runner. In 11 games, Allen has amassed 2,859 total yards and 23 total touchdowns, playing much cleaner than he has in seasons past, tossing just five interceptions.
Under Allen, the Bills offense averages the third-most points (29.1) and 13th-most yards in the league (345.3), which is particularly impressive since we haven’t seen the unit at full strength. Once TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Keon Coleman return from injuries and midseason acquisition Amari Cooper continues to get acclimated; the Bills offense could potentially improve on those marks down the stretch.
It may be difficult to put much stock in the Bills as a Super Bowl contender, seeing as though this season has played out like most of their recent ones. However, now that Allen has fully grasped OC Joe Brady’s system and the team is getting healthier, this could finally be the year Buffalo gets over the hump.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
Expectations were relatively high for the Steelers after coming into the season with an upgraded quarterback room, albeit one featuring castoffs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. While it’s not exactly surprising that HC Mike Tomlin is on his way to delivering another winning season in Pittsburgh, it is a bit shocking that his team sits atop the AFC North standings.
A calf injury Wilson suffered in training camp opened the door for Fields to be Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback, and the former Bear led the team to a 4-2 record. Despite Fields’ serviceable play, Tomlin swapped him out for the veteran Wilson, who guided the Steelers to four straight wins before dropping a Week 12 road contest against Cleveland.
Throughout it all, the imposing Steelers defense has been the backbone and identity of the team. Overall, the unit has allowed the third-fewest points (16.9) and seventh-fewest yards per game (305.18) while ranking third in turnovers forced (22). LB T.J. Watt is enjoying another season worthy of Defensive Player of the Year honors, having notched 7.5 sacks and a league-leading four forced fumbles.
Even though Wilson has shown signs of his former self, the Steelers offense raises doubts about the team’s Super Bowl potential, as the unit ranks 30th in red zone scoring efficiency. Nonetheless, with one of the NFL’s top head coaches, as well as a quarterback with playoff experience and an elite defense, on their side, the Steelers are a legitimate dark-horse contender.
Verdict: Contender
Houston Texans (7-5)
The luxury of having a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract allowed the Texans to aggressively add talent this past offseason to become a Super Bowl contender. Initially, Houston’s investments paid off, with the team jumping out to a 5-1 record. Even so, it’s becoming increasingly apparent as the season progresses that this Texans team has significant flaws and even lacks the spark last year’s group possessed.
Houston has lost four of its last six games, mainly due to its inconsistent, injury-plagued offense. QB C.J. Stroud has also regressed, throwing for 2,875 yards, 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions, four more than he threw in his 2023 OROY Award-winning season. As a result, the Texans have been one of the worst second-half offenses in the league, failing to find the end zone after halftime in five of their last six games.
The Texans’ shortcomings don’t fall solely on Stroud, as he’s playing in an unfavorable environment. Aside from losing his top three wideouts to injuries at different points in the year, Stroud’s offensive line is one of the league’s worst, ranking 27th in pass block win rate (53%) and 28th in run block win rate (68%).
Barring a catastrophic collapse, the Texans should eventually clinch their second straight AFC South title. Still, they haven’t shown the necessary flashes to be considered one of the NFL’s top contenders, and given their offensive woes, it doesn’t seem like that will change anytime soon.
Verdict: Pretender
Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
The Ravens are a much different team than the one that lost to the Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship Game, but they’re still one of the best in the NFL.
Baltimore made one of the most significant free agent acquisitions this past offseason, signing RB Derrick Henry to form the NFL’s best offensive duo alongside QB Lamar Jackson. Henry has rushed for 1,325 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns, whereas Jackson has accounted for the most total yards (3,652) and touchdowns (30) among signal-callers.
Although the offense can look nearly unstoppable at times, Baltimore’s defense has been a problem, which isn’t shocking as the team lost former DC Mike Macdonald and a few starters during the offseason. The Ravens bolstered their secondary through the draft, but their pass defense has been abysmal, allowing the most yards (3,569) and third-most touchdowns (22) among teams through the air. It is worth noting that the unit may be turning a corner, as Baltimore has only allowed 41 points over the last two games.
There’s no doubt that the Ravens have some brutal losses poking holes in their resume, namely those to Cleveland, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. But if the defense continues to play at its current level, Baltimore’s talent outweighs any concern about its status as a Super Bowl contender.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
One of the biggest winners of the offseason, the Chargers made as substantial of a head coaching upgrade as a team could make, replacing Brandon Staley with Jim Harbaugh. The 60-year-old Harbaugh has quickly changed the culture in Los Angeles, and the team is firmly in the playoff picture, which was unexpected, given the state of the roster entering the season.
Due to salary cap constraints, the Chargers were forced to cut ties with their two best wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Fortunately for Los Angeles, the Justin Herbert-led offense has fared just fine, ranking 18th in scoring and showing continuous signs of improvement.
Los Angeles’ defense has arguably been the most surprising unit in the NFL this season and a driving force behind the team’s success. Through 11 games, the Chargers have allowed the fewest points (175) and eighth-fewest yards among teams (3,560), a dramatic turnaround from a unit that finished 24th in scoring and 28th in yardage last season. It’s possible, however, that the Chargers defense’s performance will decline, considering it gave up 57 points in its last two games and now has three starters sidelined with injuries.
While the Chargers have proven they’re tough for any opponent to beat, they won’t make much noise in the playoffs. After all, Harbaugh inherited a difficult situation, and they’re just 1-4 against winning teams, with the lone win coming against the Broncos. But if Los Angeles can add a true No. 1 wide receiver for Herbert this offseason, it should be on the short list of contenders to win Super Bowl LX.
Verdict: Pretender
Denver Broncos (7-5)
Wilson’s disastrous Broncos tenure feels like ages ago, which is a testament to the stellar job HC Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix have done this season. Payton faced his share of criticism after pushing the nine-time Pro Bowler Wilson out of town and replacing him with the 24-year-old Nix, but the Oregon product has been a perfect fit for his scheme.
After a lackluster first two starts to his career, Nix has hit his stride, emerging as one of the leading candidates for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Since Week 3, Nix has thrown the seventh-most touchdowns in the NFL (16) and just two interceptions while posting a 65.7% completion rate. Considering Nix seems to be improving with each passing start, it’s fair to say Denver’s 19th-ranked scoring offense has yet to reach its full potential.
On the other side of the ball, few teams have a more formidable unit than the Broncos defense, which is headlined by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II. In addition to ranking first in sacks (44), third in pressures (124) and 10th in takeaways (15) this season, Denver’s defense allows the second-fewest points (16.8) and third-fewest yards per game (296).
Despite their success this season, the Broncos are another ascending team that feels like they’re a year away from being able to mount a deep playoff run. Denver’s 16-14 Week 10 road loss to Kansas City showed that it can compete against the NFL’s top teams and could maybe steal a game. But ultimately, its 1-5 record against teams that now hold winning records is impossible to dismiss.
Verdict: Pretender
