Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will not be a free agent until the 2025-26 offseason. That has not stopped speculation about his future.
Guerrero had been the topic of trade rumors before the July 30 deadline despite general manager Ross Atkins adamantly denying he was available. Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted that the Blue Jays are hopeful that a long-term extension can be worked out. Starting pitcher Chris Bassitt went as far as to say in an interview with Chris Rose that not only does he feel Guerrero wants to stay in Toronto for the rest of his career, but that an extension would come together.
The biggest question with a possible extension is the cost. Guerrero is earning $19.9M this season and has one more year of arbitration left. He has positioned himself for a sizable increase in salary next year, as he had produced a .316/.389/.546 batting line in his 555 plate appearances entering Saturday, hitting 26 homers and 33 doubles. Guerrero has even made eight appearances at third base, the most he has appeared at the hot corner since his rookie season.
However, as noted on the “Blair and Barker Show” on SportsNet, first basemen typically do not get more expensive contracts. Bryce Harper is the highest-paid first baseman, earning approximately $27.5M per year. Harper also signed that contract as an outfielder, moving to first base due to an elbow injury and Rhys Hoskins being lost for the 2023 season. Freddie Freeman, who is earning $27M per year through 2027, is the highest-paid player who signed their contract as a first baseman.
Jeff Blair further noted that Guerrero is unlikely to receive $30M a year, either in an extension with the Blue Jays or in free agency. His time at third base this season helps, as three third basemen — Anthony Rendon ($36M), Nolan Arenado ($35M) and Alex Bregman ($30.5M) — have all eclipsed that mark. As such, Tim Britton of The Athletic had projected a nine-year, $250M extension for Guerrero.
Some factors are working in Guerrero’s favor. He will turn just 26-years-old in March, allowing the Blue Jays, or another team, to control him during his hypothetical prime. His strikeout, walk and hard-hit rates are all far better than average.
However, Guerrero is a first baseman — that alone may lead to his receiving a comparatively disappointing offer.
