Solely 42% of doubtless Democratic main voters within the Home district spanning Higher Manhattan and elements of The Bronx would vote for longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat within the main election in response to an inner ballot from challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier.
Based mostly on title recognition alone, voters picked Espaillat over Avila Chevalier 42% to twenty-eight%, in response to outcomes shared with THE CITY.
Nonetheless, as soon as respondents heard constructive messaging about Avila Chevalier’s platform, the challenger’s marketing campaign mentioned, she leapfrogged the five-term incumbent 46% to 35%. One other Democratic candidate within the thirteenth Congressional District main, Oscar Romero, is available in a distant third at 4%.
Pollster Upswing Analysis & Technique quizzed 598 doubtless Democratic voters within the district from March 25 to March 30 by way of telephone and textual content message. The ballot has a 4% margin of error. Most polling specialists warning in opposition to taking campaign-backed polls at face worth, however as the primary ballot of NY-13 this cycle, it provides a helpful snapshot of the place voters stand two months forward of the June 23 main.
“These ballot outcomes present what we’ve got lengthy been feeling on the bottom uptown and within the Bronx: that New Yorkers are hungry for change, and so they know Darializa Avila Chevalier will ship that change on June twenty third,” marketing campaign supervisor Ilona Duverge mentioned in an announcement.
Espaillat marketing campaign spokesperson Tyrone Stevens dismissed the ballot as little greater than bluster.
“On the bottom, Congressman Espaillat has constructed deep, sturdy assist throughout Higher Manhattan and the Bronx, backed by a file of delivering and a coalition that seems,” he mentioned in an announcement. “Whereas others are attempting to create momentum on paper, we’re organizing in neighborhoods, speaking to voters, and constructing the operation that truly wins elections.”
The ballot outcomes come on the heels of a powerful week for Avila Chevalier. Her marketing campaign outraised Espaillat within the first quarter of the 12 months, bringing in $270,000 to his $230,000, in response to marketing campaign finance stories submitted to the Federal Elections Fee on April 15.
Espaillat is the one incumbent Home member within the metropolis to be out-raised by his opponent, Politico reported, although he has considerably additional cash available than Avila Chevalier: $1 million to her $220,000.
Capitalizing on Mamdani’s Win
On Friday, the New York chapter of the United Auto Employees introduced its endorsement of Avila Chevalier. She is a member of the union’s authorized companies native by her job at Neighborhood Defender Providers of Harlem. She is on go away from that job, and from learning for a PhD on the CUNY Graduate Heart, to concentrate on the marketing campaign.
The 32-year-old launched her run in opposition to Espaillat in November, looking for to capitalize on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s victory and the left’s rising clout within the district.
Her marketing campaign is backed by the New York Metropolis chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats, the group that propelled U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Queens/The Bronx) to victory in 2018, in addition to a number of members of her left-leaning “squad” together with former Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who endorsed Avila Chevalier.
Espaillat is taken into account the dean of Dominican elected officers in New York, widening the group’s energy amongst Democrats in Manhattan and The Bronx, with NY-13 as its epicenter. Dominicans make up almost half of all immigrants residing within the district. (Avila Chevalier was born within the U.S. to oldsters from the Dominican Republic.)
A Washington Heights Veteran
The 71-year-old incumbent has represented Washington Heights and Inwood for many years, first as a state senator and in Washington since 2016, because the chamber’s first Dominican-American — and first previously undocumented immigrant — member.
Espaillat seems to have taken the risk from his left significantly: Earlier this 12 months, Espaillat for the primary time appeared at an endorsement discussion board hosted by Uptown Group Democrats, a political membership aligned along with his longtime rival, state Sen. Robert Jackson. Final week, he introduced his marketing campaign had collected a hefty 20,000 petition signatures.
Progressives have lengthy sensed a gap in Higher Manhattan. The final time Espaillat confronted a spirited main, in 2020, he was re-elected with lower than 60% of the vote, and rising pockets of the district have been trending in the direction of the left. Mamdani gained the district within the 2025 Democratic main by double digit margins, despite the fact that Espaillat had backed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
