Only two games remain in the fantasy football regular season, and with six NFL teams on bye in Week 14, this week’s slate could alter the course of your league.
Whether you’re fighting for a playoff spot or trying to play spoiler, here’s what to do about several players you may be on the fence about plugging into your lineup in Week 13.
Quarterbacks
Start: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers at Falcons / 1 p.m. ET Sunday
One of the biggest steals at the quarterback position from fantasy drafts, Herbert has done just fine without longtime WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, gelling well with his new pass-catchers. Herbert ranks as the QB6 overall since Week 7, throwing for 1,589 yards during that span, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Although he only had 218 passing yards and no touchdowns during Los Angeles’ 30-23 Week 12 home loss to Baltimore, Herbert is well-positioned to bounce back against Atlanta. So far this season, the Falcons defense, which has collected a league-worst 10 sacks, has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (211.18), so Herbert should have little trouble producing another 20-point performance.
Other starts: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions; Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Dolphins at Packers / 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday
The Pro Bowl signal-caller is coming off a four-touchdown performance against the lowly Patriots, which earned him AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Tagovailoa has been on a tear since returning from his concussion in Week 8, though this week’s meeting with Green Bay raises concerns. The Packers boast one of the NFL’s top defenses, having racked up the seventh-most interceptions (11) while holding opposing quarterbacks to 13.4 fantasy points per game, the sixth-fewest among teams.
That undoubtedly presents an issue for Tagovailoa, though his noted struggles in cold weather arguably pose a greater threat to his fantasy outlook. As pointed out by Rotoworld Football’s Kyle Dvorchak, Tagovailoa averages 218.9 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns in games where the temperature is 55 degrees or below, equating to a mere 13.7 fantasy points. According to AccuWeather, it’s expected to be 27 degrees at the time of kickoff for this Thanksgiving Day matchup, potentially setting Tagovailoa up for another lackluster late-season effort.
Other sits: Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons; Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Running backs
Start: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers at Bengals / 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Warren was out-touched by Najee Harris during last week’s 24-19 road loss to Cleveland but still outperformed his backfield mate, posting a season-high 15.4 PPR points. After finishing as a top-25 running back in each of his last three games, Warren has solidified himself as a viable fantasy option and should be started with confidence against Cincinnati’s porous defense. And since Pittsburgh is listed as a 2.5-point underdog, Warren could see an uptick in receiving work, raising the former undrafted free agent’s ceiling.
Other starts: Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys; Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Sit: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals at Vikings / 1 p.m. ET Sunday
A true workhorse back, Conner ranks 13th in carries this season (166). That type of volume makes it difficult to leave him on the bench despite the fact that he posted just 9.9 fantasy points in last week’s road loss to Seattle. Even so, Conner’s upcoming matchup against Minnesota’s stingy defense is frightening.
The Vikings have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to tailbacks this season (685) and have seen their run defense hit another level during their four-game winning streak. In that time, Minnesota has allowed the fewest rushing yards (235) and yards per carry (three) in the NFL. Additionally, no running back scored at least 10 PPR points against the Vikings, and it’s possible that Conner will fall victim to the same fate.
Other sits: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants; Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas Raiders
Wide Receivers
Start: Davante Adams, New York Jets
Seahawks at Jets / 1 p.m. ET Sunday
While Adams has only averaged 12 PPR points since debuting with the Jets in Week 7, he quickly re-established himself as QB Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target. In that short time, the six-time Pro Bowler has been targeted at the ninth-highest rate among NFL wideouts, earning at least 11 targets in two of his last three games.
The matchup against Seattle isn’t particularly exciting, as the Seahawks have allowed the 16th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers (20.6). Still, with his high target share, Adams should enjoy his most productive performance since Week 9, especially since this contest will likely be the start of Rodgers’ last dance in New York.
Other starts: D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears; Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Sit: Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers
49ers at Bills / 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday
Samuel, the WR42 overall, has been a disappointment this season, even more so since fellow 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 7. The former first-team All-Pro selection ranks 62nd among wideouts in PPR points per game over his last four contests and he’s failed to reach 23 receiving yards in each of his previous two outings.
Buffalo already allows the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (17.4), and with QB Brock Purdy’s status still up in the air, Samuel is far too risky to trust this week.
Other sits: Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns; Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Tight Ends
Start: Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders
Titans at Commanders / 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Ertz has emerged as a reliable target for rookie QB Jayden Daniels, and their strong connection has been on full display lately, with the 12-year veteran scoring touchdowns in each of his last two games. Even though Tennessee allows the fewest passing yards per game this season (185.09) and has surrendered the sixth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (434), Ertz should be in line for another strong outing.
Washington averages the sixth-most rushing attempts per game this season (30.67) but should find itself throwing the ball more often in this matchup. That’s not because the team may get blown out, but rather due to its top two running backs — Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler — dealing with injuries and possibly missing the game.
Other starts: Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints; Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sit: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Eagles at Ravens / 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
Given the lack of quality tight end options, you may be reluctant to bench Andrews, who posted 15.6 PPR points in this past Monday’s win over the Chargers. However, while he isn’t a must-sit, it’d be wise to temper expectations for Andrews this week, as he could cost you your matchup.
Not only has Philadelphia — winners of its last seven games — allowed the third-fewest fantasy points (46.6) to tight ends this season, but its defense has turned a corner in recent weeks. Over their last three games, the Eagles have given up just 44 points, the fourth-fewest among teams. Considering Andrews has largely been touchdown-dependent, failing to score double-digit fantasy points in games where he didn’t find the end zone, don’t be surprised if he disappoints against the Eagles.
Other sits: Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs; Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
