Brady’s former team, the New England Patriots, announced recently that veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett will be the Week 1 starter against Cincinnati instead of 2024 No. 3 overall draft pick Drake Maye. Maye, who played 30 games at North Carolina, is the quarterback of the future for New England, but he must wait at least a week to make his debut.
That’s a change from the last first-round rookie quarterback New England had in Mac Jones. He started Week 1 in 2021, but fizzled out in New England after three seasons. He’s now a backup for Jacksonville.
Sit or play? Here’s a look at the success stories and failures from both sides of the argument:
Sit and wait
The good: The Green Bay Packers are the ideal franchise for this argument.
After Aaron Rodgers was drafted in the first round in 2005, he sat for three seasons behind Brett Favre to start his career. Current Packers starter Jordan Love, a first-round selection in 2020, sat two seasons behind Rodgers before the team made him the starter.
Rarely does it play out so nicely for a franchise for a rookie to learn from a legend and then (mostly) amicably take over as starter.
In 2017, first-round pick Patrick Mahomes began his Kansas City Chiefs career sitting behind Alex Smith. He didn’t start until the 16th game of his rookie season, becoming starter when the Chiefs traded Smith in the offseason. In 2018, Mahomes earned NFL MVP and took the Chiefs to the AFC title game.
Other franchises also did not immediately start first-round rookie QBs, although they gave each multiple starts in their first seasons.
Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and former Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, now with the Cleveland Browns, fall into this camp. Jackson is a two-time MVP. Tagovailoa and Watson are considered above-average QBs, although Watson has not had a great season since he threw for an NFL-high 4,823 yards with the Texans in 2020.
The bad: Sometimes teams wait to play their rookie and it still doesn’t work out. The Chicago Bears parted ways with former No. 11 pick Justin Fields this offseason after three seasons with minimal development.
Fields made 10 starts as a rookie in 2021, but he didn’t make his first until Week 3, when he went 6-for-20 for 68 passing yards in a 26-6 loss to Cleveland. In 2017, the Bears waited five weeks before giving Mitchell Trubisky his first career start. He’s now a journeyman.
The jury is still out on Daniel Jones as the long-term quarterback for the New York Giants. Like Chicago with Fields, New York waited until Week 3 to give Jones his first start in 2019. Since then, it’s been a rollercoaster ride, but a fired-up Jones is ready to prove the critics wrong in 2024.
Finally, some highly touted rookies simply don’t last. Josh Rosen, selected 10th overall by Arizona in 2018, made his first start in Week 4 and is now out of the league.
Play right away
The good: More often than not, franchises opt to play their first-round rookie quarterbacks right away.
To Brady’s point, it doesn’t always work out, but there are many who have succeeded. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, former Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow started from Week 1 of their rookie seasons.
It doesn’t necessarily mean all quarterbacks get off to great starts. Stafford threw three interceptions in his first start. Burrow threw a pick and was sacked three times in his.
What stands out among this group is that no matter what situation the quarterback was drafted into, they’ve progressed positively over the years. Burrow, Stafford and Stroud played well from their first starts.
The bad: Many, though, have faltered after getting the ball right away.
Sam Darnold, selected in the first round by the New York Jets in 2018, began his career with lofty expectations. He’s a journeyman who this season will start for Minnesota.
2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers is already under fire after his rookie season in 2023 in which he threw for only 11 touchdowns (and 10 interceptions). Zach Wilson, another Jets first-round bust, is struggling to stay in the league. He’s now with Denver.
Ultimately, more franchises have opted to start their rookie quarterbacks or quickly turn over the reins to them in the first half of the season in recent years.
Of the 35 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft in the past 10 years, 15 have started or will start Week 1 of their rookie season. Nine of those 15 were drafted in the past four years. So Brady is right: The trend is to play the rookies from the beginning.
Conversely, six of those 35 didn’t start until after Week 6. Five of the six, including Love, Mahomes and Jackson, have been successful for the team that drafted them.
In 2024, No. 1 pick Caleb Williams will start for the Bears, No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels will start for the Washington Commanders and No. 12 pick Bo Nix will start for the Denver Broncos. Maye and No. 8 pick Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons will begin the season as backups. No. 10 pick J.J. McCarthy of Minnesota is out for the season due to a torn right meniscus.
So, there’s no correct blanket answer for the “start-’em or sit-’em” question. All franchises hope their decision ultimately pays off in the long run. If not, they’ll likely be back at the top of the draft in a few years to try again.
