BILLS at BRONCOS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Broncos by 1, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Josh Allen is on a mission. He performed via accidents and put collectively a fourth quarter drive when he wanted it most in opposition to an excellent Jaguars protection, particularly up entrance. One would possibly say that the Broncos protection is even higher however we’re unsure. Despite its rating and it’s league-leading sack complete, that protection was riddled by Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love and even Jaxson Dart. Sure, the Buffalo WR corps is paper skinny proper now however exterior of Patrick Surtain, there are holes for Allen to search out (watch how they cowl Buffalo’s excellent group of tight ends). Bo Nix’s inconsistencies are a difficulty in opposition to an enhancing Payments cross protection. Nix doesn’t do nicely when confronted with a wide range of pre-snap seems to be — and that’s what Sean McDermott did in opposition to Lawrence. Denver additionally depends on yards after the catch and the Payments are close to the highest of the league in defending YAC. And, whereas Buffalo’s run protection is beneath mediocre, RJ Harvey could not be capable of make the most of any potential mismatch. Playoff expertise is one-sided and the Broncos have but to actually show themselves in opposition to prime caliber competitors this yr. Nearly all of their convincing wins got here in opposition to backside feeding groups. On condition that the Broncos should depend on time of possession to maintain Allen on the sidelines, we’ll go below the full as nicely.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Payments and the below.
49ERS at SEAHAWKS
Saturday, 8 p.m., Seahawks by 7 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: The below seems to be good right here. Seattle has one of the best protection within the NFC. The Seahawks usually grind it out on offense and the Niners’ defensive philosophy is to maintain every little thing in entrance of them. This might be a low-scoring one. We simply don’t see Seattle working away with this in opposition to a well-known divisional rival. The groups meet for the second time in three weeks after the Seahawks’ 13-3 win within the Week 18 showdown for the NFC West and the highest seed. That works within the favor of Kyle Shanahan, who will definitely make changes off that sport tape. Dropping George Kittle hurts as a result of the Seahawks are one of many NFL’s worst groups defending tight ends and what he means as a run blocker. Nevertheless, Christian McCaffrey will find yourself taking part in an even bigger half within the passing sport. Plus, OT Trent Williams’ absence was evident within the final sport when the Niners managed solely a FG. His return adjustments every little thing. There are factors to be made for the Seahawks. The 49ers don’t stress the quarterback and Sam Darnold is a totally totally different QB when and when he doesn’t have time. There’s additionally the horrible schedule the NFL dealt the 49ers, having to return from Philadelphia to face the rested Seahawks on a brief week. Nonetheless, it appears like too many factors.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the below.
TEXANS at PATRIOTS
3 p.m., Pats by 2 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: The Texans’ protection is elite. The Steelers didn’t stand an opportunity in opposition to them. However that was largely as a result of Aaron Rodgers can’t transfer. Houston’s edge rushers simply met on the goal. Drake Maye can transfer and he has a giant edge on CJ Stroud. Granted, Stroud made some large performs in Pittsburgh however he was a turnover machine earlier and regarded panicked below stress. The Pats’ entrance dominated within the pits final week. Granted, the Chargers’ O-line is porous however the Texans have had safety points as nicely. It’s additionally wanting as if Stroud’s most dependable receiver, Nico Collins, might be sidelined with a concussion. Woody Marks may have success working inside in opposition to a D-line that’s extra about penetration than being a wall. Maye should play higher than he did final week, particularly as a result of the Texans neutralize working assaults. However he ought to after getting via his first playoff begin. Most likely, the Patriots received’t must mild up the scoreboard. It’d take only a few large performs down the sector and that’s the place Maye displayed his MVP credentials all season. It’s going to be a drag-out affair. We like that this line is below a discipline objective. If the hook was on the opposite facet, we’d lean Texans.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the below.
RAMS at BEARS
6:30 p.m., Rams by 3 ½, 51
HANK’S HONEYS: Lots is dependent upon Matthew Stafford’s finger. All Rams bets went down the tubes final week after he hit it on a teammate’s helmet. X-rays have been destructive and he says it’s advantageous however we will see. Then there’s the anticipated 10-degree temperatures. Stafford has performed his whole profession both indoors in Detroit or within the heat of LA. He has not been an excellent unhealthy climate QB. Nevertheless, Stafford has excelled when he has a clear pocket and the Bears wouldn’t have a cross rush. Normally, Chicago’s D has been all about creating turnovers. They aren’t nice at any degree. As for the Bears’ O, can their all-important run sport prosper in opposition to this Rams’ entrance? The Rams are wonderful at protecting runners from attending to the sides. They will additionally usher in a fifth D-lineman, one thing that has given the Bears points. The Rams’ entrance is disruptive so Caleb Williams goes to must make some off-schedule performs just like the game-saving fourth and 10 he transformed final week. The Rams’ secondary has been exploited over the past month or so. Quentin Lake had a tough time in his first sport again from damage final week and he’ll in all probability be matched up in opposition to TE Colston Loveland, Williams’ greatest third down menace. The Bears could possibly be having a type of magical seasons . . . a staff of future. On condition that each of their dwelling losses have been by three factors, we’ll take the hook.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the below.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Payments. Josh beats Bo.
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PLAYOFF RECORD
LAST WEEK: 1-5, over/below 5-1
BEST BETS: 1-0
