Murders. Shootings. Robberies.
The variety of these main crimes within the metropolis all fell sharply final 12 months — with some plunging to their lowest ranges in fashionable recorded historical past.
How a lot consideration ought to New Yorkers pay to figures like these? And what numbers do criminologists and police officers imagine matter most?
These questions are taking up added that means with President Donald Trump deploying the Nationwide Guard in cities reminiscent of Washington D.C., Chicago and Los Angeles, the place the White Home says crime is spiraling to harmful ranges — though violent crimes are usually trending down in massive U.S. cities.
“We see the headlines and listen to the pundits speak about crime being uncontrolled,” Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch advised reporters final Tuesday as she introduced the general drop in so-called main crimes. “These numbers inform a really completely different story.”
THE CITY spoke with a number of specialists who examine crime information and requested what metrics they have a look at and the way they interpret them.
Right here’s what they stated:
What are the principle crime statistics, in line with the police?
When speaking about crime in New York Metropolis, the dialog nearly at all times begins with the so-called seven index crimes, or main crimes: homicide, rape, theft, felony assault, housebreaking, grand larceny (theft of property price $1,000 or extra) and grand larceny auto.
The NYPD posts these figures on-line every week in addition to some historic information to place the data into context.
The FBI additionally collects index crime data from different cities.
Of these main crimes, that are essentially the most helpful and dependable to look at?
Murder is extensively thought to be crucial and dependable information level, in addition to essentially the most scrutinized by the general public and policymakers. Some specialists additionally depend on firearm violence statistics.
“I simply have a look at shootings and murders,” stated Peter Moskos, a professor at John Jay Faculty of Felony Justice.
The previous Baltimore beat cop stated he doesn’t belief different statistics as a result of they’re continuously underreported and left to interpretation.
In New York Metropolis, the variety of homicides dropped by 20% final 12 months, from 382 in 2024 to 305 in 2025, in line with the NYPD. Against this, there have been over 2,200 murders in 1990 in the course of the peak of the crack epidemic.
“Individuals are extra involved about murder,” stated Alex Piquero, who served because the director of the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics in the course of the Biden administration.
“That’s at all times what’s the first story within the information, or they watch it on TV, and that’s what individuals have a look at,” he added.
The variety of homicides is dropping throughout the nation, federal information exhibits. “We’re shifting in a very good course in most locations,” Piquero, who teaches on the College of Miami, advised THE CITY.
Murder charges are thought of essentially the most precisely recorded crime stats as a result of the top result’s simple. “There’s a physique and the health worker’s workplace is concerned,” stated Alex Vitale, coordinator of the Policing and Social Justice Challenge at Brooklyn Faculty.
“It’s probably not a difficulty of reporting bias,” he continued. “Principally, once we see important modifications in murder numbers over time, now we have a variety of confidence in that.”
Equally, auto theft numbers are extremely dependable as a result of individuals should report it to the police to take away the registration from their identify and declare insurance coverage, added Vitale, writer of “The Finish of Policing,” who can also be on the Mamdani transition staff.
Which main crime statistics are much less dependable?
Different index crimes, reminiscent of housebreaking and felony assault, are historically underreported, in line with the Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey, which asks a bunch of random individuals “about crimes they could have skilled previously six months.”
Nonetheless, that doesn’t render the year-to-year traits meaningless. “When patterns maintain over time, they do inform us one thing,” Vitale stated.
Rape is the least dependable index crime reported, in line with Vitale and different criminologists.
“The willingness of rape survivors to report back to the police appears to be pushed partially by some exterior components,” he stated. “And in order that’s the bottom dependable variety of the main crimes that we sometimes have a look at.”
In New York Metropolis, reported rapes rose 16% citywide in 2025, a spike the NYPD attributed largely to a state regulation change in 2024 that expanded the authorized definition of rape. Practically half of reported rape instances had been home violence-related, police stated.
The NYPD conducts spot verify audits of its index crime figures however doesn’t publish these evaluations on-line or in some other public discussion board. Through the years, the audits have found prime police officers downplaying some statistics. High brass is beneath intense stress to cut back crime of their areas and they’re referred to as out throughout routine “CompStat” conferences contained in the division’s primary workplace at 1 Police Plaza.
How precisely do the main crime stats mirror what’s really occurring?
Jaeok Kim, affiliate director for analysis on the Vera Institute’s Larger Justice New York, stated the main crime classes don’t at all times line up with how individuals expertise security of their day by day lives.
Felony assault, as an illustration, is usually used as a shorthand for whether or not a metropolis feels secure, feeding the concept that these instances mirror random acts of violence by strangers, she stated. However once you look extra intently on the information, that image begins to interrupt down.
About half of felony assaults contain somebody the sufferer already is aware of, Kim stated, which makes it a far much less simple measure of public security than it’s usually handled as.
The concentrate on crime stats additionally fails to handle underlying causes that led as much as the offense being dedicated.
Kim stated that’s why she and different researchers look properly past crime information when making an attempt to grasp security.
In latest work, she stated, researchers have paired crime statistics with measures of housing and meals safety, environmental situations and financial stability. These components embody issues like training ranges, poverty charges, noise and air air pollution, and what number of residents are struggling to afford fundamental wants.Analysis has proven that greater poverty neighborhoods continuously even have greater charges of violent crime.
Simply as vital, Kim stated, is asking individuals straight what makes them really feel unsafe in their very own communities. When residents are a part of defining the issue — alongside metropolis businesses — the image of security turns into far broader than crime alone.
That method, she added, has one other benefit: it factors to options. Whereas violent crime may be troublesome to stop in a focused approach, points like meals insecurity, housing instability, air pollution and job entry are sometimes extra concrete and extra actionable. Analysis has proven that bettering these has been related to crime reductions.
Vitale, who can also be a sociologist at Brooklyn Faculty, stated “dysfunction” is among the many most poorly measured elements of public security.
Encounters that always form how secure individuals really feel, reminiscent of seeing a homeless one who seems disoriented or in disaster in a subway station, don’t present up in crime statistics, he stated. Many quality-of-life points are usually not crimes in any respect, and even when they’re, they continuously go unreported.
Crime statistics appear to go up and down quite a bit all year long. What does that imply?
Virtually all of the specialists agree that sudden spikes or drops in crime from week to week or month to month shouldn’t be given an excessive amount of credence.
“I usually would wish to have a look at not less than a 12 months’s price of knowledge earlier than drawing any important conclusions,” Vitale stated. “And you understand, ideally longer than that.”
He cautioned that sensational protection of some murders, like a mentally sick individual shoving somebody on the subway tracks, shouldn’t be taken out of context when on the lookout for traits. “Sure, homicides generally are available spikes, however that doesn’t essentially inform us what the general development is,” he added.
Piquero, a criminologist, stated he begins with the year-to-year development when reviewing crime information and asks himself, “Is it taking place, up, or regular?”
Not everybody agrees with that method. One knowledgeable says it’s vital to look out for any main traits occurring in the course of the 12 months. “Nothing magic about Dec. 31 as a reduce off,” stated Moskos, writer of “Again from the Brink: Contained in the NYPD and New York Metropolis’s Extraordinary Nineteen Nineties Crime Drop.”
Total, the specialists additionally famous that crime usually goes up in the summertime when the climate is hotter and folks spend extra time outdoors — and youths are dwelling from college.
What figures don’t matter?
Vitale and another criminologists contend that the variety of individuals locked up doesn’t make a distinction to public security.
The inhabitants of Rikers has gone from a many years low of beneath 4,000 in the course of the peak of the pandemic to round 7,000 proper now.
Virtually half of the individuals detained there undergo from some form of psychological well being situation, in line with the town’s Division of Correction.
“Once we have a look at the inhabitants at Rikers, what we see is that a large proportion of it’s principally individuals in acute disaster,” Vitale stated. “They’re unhoused, they’re unemployed, they’ve psychological well being and substance use points, and sure, a few of them are a supply of hurt and burdens and high quality of life points for the neighborhood.”
However sending them to Rikers, the place it prices an estimated $500,000 per individual a 12 months, is “the costliest factor we may probably do,” he stated. “If we glance long run, we don’t see a easy correspondence between the inhabitants of Rikers and crime charges.”
He identified that the variety of individuals in metropolis jails dropped throughout your entire Bloomberg administration from 2002 to 2013. But homicide and different crime plummeted to report lows.
Moskos, the previous Baltimore police officer, has a unique take. The variety of individuals in jail does matter to public security, he stated.
“You hate to guage effectiveness by the variety of individuals in jail, and I might hate for there to be a purpose or quota, however in fact if extra individuals who could be hurting individuals on the road are in Rikers it means much less individuals being harm on the street,” he advised THE CITY.
So which numbers ought to individuals actually be taking note of?
Criminologists say indicators reminiscent of overdose deaths, homelessness, and medical health insurance protection charges usually reveal extra about public security than crime statistics alone.
“That’s one thing that individuals usually miss,” stated Kim from the Vera Institute.
The variety of individuals being admitted to hospital emergency rooms after struggling some kind of assault can also be a possible indicator of public security. However these figures aren’t up to date repeatedly so they’re laborious to maintain a detailed eye on and flag for traits.
