The NFL regular season kicks off with Thursday night’s Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs game, followed by Friday night’s Green Bay Packers-Philadelphia Eagles game in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
On Sunday, 13 more games are scheduled, followed by the New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers on “Monday Night Football.”
Optimism abounds (mostly) for fan bases of all 32 teams.
On the cusp of the season, we asked Yardbarker NFL writers to project the 2024 floor and ceiling for every team in the NFC.
NFC East
DALLAS COWBOYS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 6-11 | Quarterback Dak Prescott, who led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes last season, is playing for a contract that could make him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL in 2025. His favorite target, CeeDee Lamb, led the league with 135 receptions last season and is the league’s third-highest paid receiver with a new four-year, $136M contract. Together, they’ll look to carry a team that lost leading rusher Tony Pollard to the Titans after a crushing 48-32 loss to the Packers in last year’s playoffs.
NEW YORK GIANTS | Ceiling: 9-8/Floor: 5-12 | If the Giants cut down on the league-high 85 sacks they allowed in 2023 and quarterback Daniel Jones finds the 2022 form that made him the NFL’s 15th-leading passer, a winning record could be within reach for a team operating with first-round pick Malik Nabers as its No. 1 receiver. Unfortunately for the Giants, running back Saquon Barkley took last year’s 1,242 total yards and 10 touchdowns with him to Philadelphia in the offseason, which could be a problem for a team with its head coach (Brian Daboll) and quarterback already on the hot seat.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 7-10 | Are the Eagles the team that opened last season with a 10-1 record or the one that lost six of its last seven regular-season games? GM Howie Roseman added former Giants running back Saquon Barkley and new coordinators Kellen Moore (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense) in hopes of the former. However, if quarterback Jalen Hurts turns the ball over as he did in 2023 (15 interceptions, four fumbles lost), the latter could be inevitable.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS | Ceiling: 9-8/Floor: 5-12 | Dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft, and new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should do wonders for Washington’s 25th-ranked offense, especially with a revamped offensive line that includes former Cowboys center Tyler Biadasz and rookie left tackle Brandon Coleman. Unfortunately for the Commanders, new head coach Dan Quinn, the ex-Cowboys defensive coordinator, won’t have Cowboys LB Micah Parsons and CB DaRon Bland to help fix a defense that allowed the most yards (388.9) and points per game (30.5) last season. — Bruce Ewing
NFC West
ARIZONA CARDINALS | Ceiling: 9-8/Floor: 6-11 | Having a healthy QB Kyler Murray for a full season, an improved offensive line and a potential No. 1 wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. could go a long way toward rapidly improving this team. The offense could be really good, but the defense still has significant questions — especially with the pass rush — which limits Arizona’s ceiling. The Cardinals will be better, but they still need another year before becoming a playoff contender.
LOS ANGELES RAMS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 8-9 | Losing DT Aaron Donald to retirement and trading middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV before the season leaves significant holes in the middle of the defense. The good news for the Rams is they have an emerging star in Kobie Turner to help fill in for Donald and two promising rookies (Jared Verse and Braden Fiske) on the defensive line. If QB Matthew Stafford stays healthy, the Rams have a chance to compete for a playoff spot and potentially an NFC West title.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS | Ceiling: 14-3/Floor: 10-7 | The 49ers might have the best roster in the NFL, especially now that they know both of their top wide receivers — Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel — are with the team. The big wild card is irreplaceable starting left tackle Trent Williams, who won’t play until he gets a new deal. QB Brock Purdy has something to prove this season, but even if he takes a step backward, the rest of the roster is so good that the 49ers still have a 10-win floor.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | Ceiling: 10-7/Floor: 7-10 | The Seahawks have great skill-position players, especially at wide receiver with D.K. Metcalf, but Seattle needs Geno Smith to play like a franchise quarterback and for the defense to be better than the 25th ranking it has had the past two seasons. Seattle hopes HC Mike Macdonald, the former Ravens defensive coordinator, helps fix the issues on defense. The Seahawks might not have enough to compete with the 49ers at the top of the division, but a playoff spot is within reach. — Adam Gretz
NFC North
CHICAGO BEARS | Ceiling: 10-7/Floor: 6-11 | Chicago’s offense should be much improved after adding quarterback Caleb Williams, running back D’Andre Swift and receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, who could form one of the more underrated units in the NFC. If the Bears get to the quarterback consistently — a full season of Montez Sweat, plus Darrell Taylor and rookie Austin Booker should help there — they should reach double-digit wins and compete for a playoff spot. If the pressure is always on the offense and Williams to come from behind, it could be a long season.
DETROIT LIONS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 8-9 | It’s hard to see the Lions regressing after last season’s 12-5 record, especially after retaining offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and shoring up their secondary. However, they have eight games against playoff teams from last season and games against Indianapolis and Jacksonville, which could challenge for playoff spots this season, so the road to the postseason could be much tougher than in 2023.
GREEN BAY PACKERS | Ceiling: 12-5/ Floor: 6-11 | There’s such a big discrepancy in the team’s floor and ceiling because the defense is a wild card. Quarterback Jordan Love should carry the team to at least 10 wins. However, if the defense — which lost defensive backs Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford, Darnell Savage Jr. and Rasul Douglas and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell — struggles, the team could lose quite a few shootouts.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS | Ceiling: 6-11/Floor: 3-14 | Minnesota’s success, or lack thereof, in 2024 will come down to how well journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold (59.7% career completion percentage) plays. He has solid help around him, but the defense is still a work in progress and could be the reason the Vikings lose close games. — Michael Gallagher
NFC South
ATLANTA FALCONS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 7-10 | The August additions of linebacker Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons solidified the Falcons as the NFC South’s team to beat. Paired with the easiest schedule in the NFL, Atlanta — which also added quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency — could potentially win its most games since 2012, when it finished 13-3.
CAROLINA PANTHERS | Ceiling: 6-11; Floor: 3-14 | Quarterback Bryce Young’s progression in Year 2, his first with former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales as his head coach, will determine how the Panthers finish. Carolina improved the talent around Young, adding wideout Diontae Johnson and offensive linemen Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, which should help 2023’s No. 1 overall pick take a step in the right direction.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS | Ceiling: 10-7/Floor: 5-12 | A veteran defense should keep the Saints in most of their games this season. However, an inconsistent offense with a major question at right tackle has a chance to sink New Orleans to the bottom of the division. If that happens, HC Dennis Allen (16-18 in two seasons, no playoff appearances) could be a goner.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS | Ceiling: 11-6/Floor: 8-9 | Tampa surprised nearly everyone by winning its third consecutive NFC South crown last season following Tom Brady’s retirement. Its ceiling is higher this season with QB Baker Mayfield entering his second year as the starter, but a more difficult schedule could cause the Bucs to see a slight decline from their 9-8 record last season. — Eric Smithling
