The Detroit Red Wings have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NHL this season, sporting just an 11-13-4 record, which is 26th in the league, as of Thursday.
After a narrow playoff miss last season, general manager Steve Yzerman added two-time Stanley Cup winner Vladimir Tarasenko, re-signed Patrick Kane and improved their goaltending with the veteran Cam Talbot. Many fans were optimistic about the season. Unfortunately, not much has gone right for Detroit.
Most of the Red Wings’ issues lie with their offense. Their goals for per game has dropped from 3.35, ninth overall in 2023-24, to 2.57, 27th overall in 2024-25. What is causing this drop-off in scoring? Let’s examine the issues.
Shots on net and shooting percentage
Although Detroit was in the bottom half of the league in shots on net in 2023-24, with 29 per game (23rd overall), that number has decreased this season; the team is averaging just 25.3 shots per game, which is second to last in the league.
In addition to fewer shots on net, the Red Wings’ shooting percentage has gone down from 11.58% in 2023-24 to 10.13% this season.
Fewer shots and a lower shooting percentage will certainly make for fewer goals and is a big factor in Detroit’s struggles.
The 5v5 play
Detroit has been one of the worst offensive teams on 5v5. While its power play has essentially kept the offense afloat with a seventh-ranked 25.6%, the 5v5 offense is arguably the team’s biggest problem.
Their 42 5v5 total goals for is the second worst in the league and its expected goals for is third worst with 49 total. This offensive output is holding the team back, as its 5v5 goals against has actually improved quite a bit from last season.
In 2023-24, Detroit was one of the worst teams at defending 5v5, with a 28th-ranked 2.85 goals against per 60 minutes. This season has seen a major flip; the team is allowing just 2.13 5v5 goals against per 60, which is ninth overall. If the Red Wings can improve their 5v5 scoring, they should see better results.
Scoring above expected
In 2023-24, it can be argued that the Red Wings were shooting well above their means. According to MoneyPuck, their 5v5 goals scored above expected was not just the most in the league but well ahead of its next close competitor, as Detroit’s 33.02 number nearly doubled second-ranked Vancouver’s 18.97.
Their 2023-24 shooting percentage on all shots also led the league at 5.87%. All this is to say that, given the fact that the Red Wings were way outperforming their shot quality last season, it’s reasonable to assume that they were due for regression in 2024-25.
Overcorrecting the mistakes
Finally, while Detroit had a high-octane offense last season, it was often its defense and goaltending that let it down in games. Although Yzerman, as stated, did add goalie Cam Talbot, who has been excellent, perhaps coach Derek Lalonde overcorrected the team’s defensive issues.
The team is playing more conservatively offensively to fix their defensive woes, with fewer shots and slightly fewer expected 5v5 goals from last season (2.25 in 2023-24 to 2.08). However, this hasn’t necessarily helped its defense, as they are allowing the fifth most shots on net per game.
Overall, the Red Wings are being held up by a top power play and quality goaltending. Their 5v5 offense, combined with a historically low penalty kill, has caused them to falter this season. If they don’t improve it soon, they’ll be looking at another season outside the playoffs.
