When the green flag drops on Sunday’s Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, it will also drop on the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
Every racing fan should be familiar with the format as it enters its 11th season: three elimination rounds to cut the field from 16 to four and a winner-take-all season finale at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 10.
With that in mind, here are predictions for how this year’s playoffs might play out:
First round
- Atlanta Motor Speedway (Sept. 8)
- Watkins Glen International (Sept. 15)
- Bristol Motor Speedway (Sept. 21)
The first round of the playoffs includes a highly diverse set of tracks, none of which are traditional intermediate ovals. There’s a superspeedway, a road course and then a short track, and all three could be conducive to unexpected plot twists.
Atlanta has been a wild card since its reconfiguration in 2022 to feature “pack racing,” much like Daytona or Talladega, and could be a prime track for a non-playoff winner. Let’s pick Kyle Busch to extend his 19-year streak of winning at least once every season of his Cup Series career. At Watkins Glen, Chase Elliott will break through at a road course for the first time since 2021, and Denny Hamlin will sweep the season’s events at Bristol.
Eliminated: Daniel Suarez, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton
Second round
- Kansas Speedway (Sept. 29)
- Talladega Superspeedway (Oct. 6)
- Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval (Oct. 13)
Once again, this round features a superspeedway and a road course, though this round begins with a “normal” track in Kansas. Most of the season’s surprise winners who would not otherwise have made the playoffs will likely be eliminated in the first round. This is where we may start to see big names have their seasons prematurely end.
Kansas will be the latest in a long line of Kyle Larson intermediate stomp-fests, giving him the season sweep there, and then Bubba Wallace (who is not in the playoffs) will add his name to the list of 2024 winners in Talladega. The Roval could go in a few different directions, but let’s go with Tyler Reddick to remind the field that he’s the regular-season champion for a reason.
Eliminated: Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric
Third round
- Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Oct. 20)
- Homestead-Miami Speedway (Oct. 27)
- Martinsville Speedway (Nov. 3)
This is where the cream rises to the top, with two intermediates followed by a short track in Martinsville that’s known to produce thrilling Game 7-like moments as drivers fight for one last shot to make the championship round. All eight remaining drivers could advance, and the margin for error should be razor-thin.
William Byron will earn a bittersweet victory in Las Vegas after his elimination from the playoffs the week before. Then, Larson will become the first driver to clinch his championship-round status with a dominant performance at Homestead. Ryan Blaney will take Martinsville in the clutch for the second year in a row, earning a shot to defend his title. Additionally, Christopher Bell and Hamlin will make the cut to join them in racing for a championship.
Eliminated: Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski
Championship round | Nov. 10 | Phoenix Raceway
Four drivers. One championship. The storylines are everywhere.
Larson — the best driver in the sport and most dominant this season — is looking for title No. 2 to cement himself as one of the all-time greats. Blaney is the defending champ trying to repeat. Then there’s Bell and Hamlin, a pair of Joe Gibbs Racing competitors who have never won a title.
Could it finally be Hamlin’s year? Or will his teammate, Bell — who won at Phoenix in the spring — become the latest young driver to capture his first crown?
With JGR spreading its resources to multiple drivers, things will be easier for Blaney and Larson, who will have all the support from their respective teams. That may have been Larson’s undoing last season, when teammate Byron was also racing for a title, and Blaney got the better of him in a thrilling late-race battle.
This time, it will go slightly differently, and Larson will earn the win and the trophy as NASCAR Cup Series champion.
