The obvious failure of essential U.S.-Iran negotiations has raised considerations that key figures inside Tehran’s management may escape to Russia, aiming to “maintain their insurgency and disrupt any rising regime,” in line with an analyst’s warning.
This breakdown in talks coincides with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks on CBS’ “60 Minutes,” suggesting that the overthrow of Iran’s regime is more and more possible.
Netanyahu identified that the autumn of Iran’s regime would dismantle the “framework” supporting Tehran’s international terrorist proxy community, probably diminishing Hezbollah’s regional affect.
“The whole framework of the terrorist proxy community that Iran constructed collapses if Iran’s regime collapses,” Netanyahu acknowledged.
Former President Donald Trump talked about that U.S. army actions towards Iran have been so impactful they eliminated a lot of the regime’s potential management, resulting in uncertainty in regards to the future leaders of the Islamic Republic.
“I believe you possibly can’t predict exactly when it’ll occur. Is it potential? Sure. Is it assured? No,” he cautioned.
With diplomatic choices maybe exhausted and the regime’s stability in query, an professional suggests the exit technique any management could also be eyeing may be much like that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria in 2024.
“If the scenario deteriorates additional, some senior figures may probably comply with a path like Bashar al-Assad’s internal circle and search refuge in Russia,” Center East professional Saeid Golkar instructed Fox Information Digital.
Whereas prime commanders might be Moscow-bound, lower-ranking figures would extra possible head for Iraq or Afghanistan, Center East professional Saeid Golkar instructed Fox Information Digital. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic Consultative Meeting Information Company/WANA)
Golkar, a senior adviser at United Towards Nuclear Iran, famous that flight locations would possible rely on rank.
Whereas prime commanders like Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf may head to Moscow, lower-ranking figures would extra possible search shelter in Iraq or Afghanistan, the place the IRGC maintains operational connections, he clarified.
“For probably the most senior figures, Russia would most likely be the most probably vacation spot, once more as we noticed with Bashar al-Assad,” Golkar mentioned, noting many officers have already moved wealth into “monetary networks outdoors Iran.”
The present disaster began following the loss of life of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026 throughout the onset of Operation Epic Fury.
Whereas his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named successor, studies proceed to point he was severely injured within the strikes and has been absent from current negotiations.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the brand new supreme chief of Iran and second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is “both lifeless or in unhealthy situation,” in line with Golkar. (Hamed Jafarnejad/ISNA/WANA/Reuters)
Golkar defined that the “invisible state,” or Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to outlive decapitation, whereas the ideological price of fleeing for leaders can be excessive.
“Contained in the regime’s ideological tradition, leaving the nation throughout the collapse would appear like desertion,” Golkar famous.
Nevertheless, as army fractures deepen and succession stays unsure, the “Assad mannequin” of looking for Russian safety seems more and more engaging to these on the prime.
Mojtaba, nevertheless, is “both lifeless or in unhealthy situation, that he can’t ship any video or voice message,” Golkar added.
“If he had died from his accidents, there was no clear pure successor. He was the continuation of the regime.”
“Nonetheless, the system was designed for continuity throughout a disaster,” Golkar mentioned, including that the purpose is to “make certain the regime may survive even when formal establishments have been broken, leaders have been killed, or civilian authorities stopped functioning.”
“I might describe it as a regime designed not simply to control, however all the time to try to survive decapitation,” Golkar added.
