With an autumn as dry as this one has been, it’s no surprise some dire repercussions are starting to be seen.
Vegetation is growing brittle, drought conditions are expanding and the wildfire risk is amplifying. Nearly the entire region is under at least a high risk of fire danger, with parts of Connecticut and New Jersey having been upgraded to the “extreme” fire risk.
On Thursday, a red flag warning is in place for Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean County through 6 p.m. Red flag warnings are issued when wind gusts, relative humidity and available dry brush all reach a critical level where any fires that develop will spread rapidly and be difficult to contain.
For the areas that do not quite meet the stringent red flag warning requirements, a special weather statement has been issued, warning of the elevated fire danger across the rest of the region.
Because of these elevated fire concerns, any outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Check to see if there are any burn restrictions or bans active in your area. And exercise extreme caution when handling any ignition sources, like cigarette butts and matches; Make sure to dispose of them properly, it would not take much to spark a fire.
Thursday is not the first day this week of elevated fire concerns and it likely will not be the last. All of the key ingredients needed for rapid fire growth are present in our forecast.
The big change on Thursday, which led to the expansion of the “extreme” fire danger, is the gusty winds. A passing cold front on Thursday didn’t manage to bring much rain with it, but it did bring along some brisk northwestern winds. Sustained winds of 10-15 miles per hour and gusts up to 30 miles per hour are more than enough to aid in the rapid spread of fire, making it very difficult to contain.
On top of the gusty winds, Thursday’s cold front brought with it much drier air, dropping the relative humidity. Relative humidity is the measure of available moisture in the atmosphere and when it drops near 30%, fire danger really starts to escalate. The drier the atmosphere is, the more moisture it draws from vegetation, increasing its susceptibility to catching fire.
But the dominant factor that has been amplifying our fire concerns has been the lack of rainfall. We have not recorded measurable rainfall in Central Park in nearly four weeks. And this is coming after an especially dry September as well. Month to date, we are running a rainfall deficit of over three inches. Season to date, that deficit is now over six inches.
This staggering lack of rainfall has led to abnormally dry conditions across our area. A moderate drought has been expanding across South and Central Jersey, while severe drought conditions have spread throughout all of Ocean County.
Unsurprisingly, these areas with the worst drought conditions correspond to where we are seeing the greatest fire danger.
And there is no end to our dry streak coming any time soon.
Through the end of the month, we have little to no rain coming our way. The best chance would come Saturday morning, with the passage of another cold front. But that will be another largely dry front that will bring us some morning clouds at best.
If Saturday does not bring any rain to Central Park, we will likely end the month with no measurable rain. It would make this month the driest October on record and would be the first time in the history of Central Park’s record keeping (going back to the 1860s) that we made it through a calendar month without measurable rain.
