The College Football Playoff field will be finalized in less than three weeks, but there’s still so much we don’t know.
As the regular season rapidly approaches its end, here are five burning questions we have about this year’s expanded 12-team field.
How many teams are in playoff contention?
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, 24 teams have at least a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-2, 5-1 in Sun Belt) has the longest odds and would need College Football Playoff No. 12 Boise State (9-1, 6-0 in MWC), No. 24 UNLV (8-2, 4-1 in MWC), No. 20 Tulane (9-2, 7-0 in AAC) and No. 19 Army (9-0, 7-0 in AAC) to fall apart down the stretch while winning out to end the season as the selection committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1) is the lone independent in contention and can only reach as high as No. 5 in the 12-team playoff bracket by virtue of not playing a conference championship game.
Here’s a list of contenders from the power conferences (in alphabetical order):
ACC (3)
No. 17 Clemson (8-2, 7-1 in ACC); No. 8 Miami (9-1, 5-1 in ACC); SMU (9-1, 6-0 in ACC)
Big 12 (4)
No. 21 Arizona State (8-2, 5-2 in Big 12); No. 14 BYU (9-1, 6-1 in Big 12); No. 16 Colorado (8-2, 6-1 in Big 12); No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 in Big 12)
Big Ten (4)
No. 5 Indiana (10-0, 7-0 in Big Ten); No. 2 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1 in Big Ten); No. 1 Oregon (11-0, 8-0 in Big Ten); No. 4 Penn State (9-1, 6-1 in Big Ten)
SEC (7)
No. 7 Alabama (8-2, 4-2 in SEC); No. 10 Georgia (8-2, 6-2 in SEC); No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 in SEC); No. 18 South Carolina (7-3, 5-3 in SEC); No. 11 Tennessee (8-2, 5-2 in SEC); No. 3 Texas (9-1, 5-1 in SEC); No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 in SEC)
Which Week 13 games have the biggest playoff implications?
Ole Miss at Florida (5-5, 3-4 in SEC): The Gators officially eliminated LSU from the SEC title race last Saturday and can land a fatal blow to Ole Miss’ chances in Week 13.
BYU at Arizona State and
Colorado at Kansas (4-6, 3-4 in Big 12): The Big 12 race will start crystallizing following Saturday’s games. The Cougars-Sun Devils loser will be eliminated from Big 12 championship contention, and the Buffaloes can join them with a road loss to the Jayhawks, who have won their last two games.
Notre Dame vs. Army (neutral site): The Irish and Black Knights meet as ranked opponents for the first time since 1958, a 14-2 Army win, its last in the series. Notre Dame has steamrolled through its competition following the season’s most surprising defeat, a 16-13 Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois (6-5, 3-4 in MAC). Army could make the discussion for the CFP’s fifth automatic bid more interesting with an upset win.
Will the playoff be a Big Ten-SEC invitational?
That could depend on Notre Dame. If the Irish lose to Army or USC in their regular-season finale, it will open the door for the first round of the playoffs to consist solely of Big Ten and SEC teams.
Six of the seven at-large bids would go to the two conferences based on the Week 13 rankings, and Tennessee was the last team out of the most recent unveil. The Vols will likely take Notre Dame’s place if it stumbles.
Is Indiana’s strength of schedule really that bad?
Several analysts have suggested that the Hoosiers could be knocked out of the playoff conversation with a convincing loss to Ohio State, even if it ends the season with one loss, based on a weak strength of schedule. According to ESPN’s FPI, the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule ranks 106th. However, they haven’t only played scrubs this year.
We divided the 134 FBS programs into four quadrants, with Quad 1 being teams ranked 1-34 according to FP, Quad 2 ranked 35-67, Quad 3 ranked 68-100 and Quad 4 ranked 101-134 to better gauge each team’s resume. The results were somewhat surprising.
While Indiana hasn’t played a Quad 1 game, five of its wins have come against teams ranked in the country’s top half, compared to just three for Ohio State. Indiana hasn’t played any heavyweight so far, but digging into the numbers reveals a team that isn’t as deserving of the ridicule it’s received.
South Carolina has three losses. How is it in the mix?
With its three losses, South Carolina is out of the SEC championship picture. So, why does ESPN still give the Gamecocks an 8.9 percent chance to make the playoff?
They might have wins against two power conference champions on their resume by the end of the season.
South Carolina already beat Texas A&M, which is in play for the SEC championship, 44-20 in Week 10. It plays Clemson, an ACC contender, in the regular-season finale.
A win against their in-state would signal to the rest of college football that the Gamecocks are peaking at the right time.
