We are a little more than a week into the NBA season. Every team has played four or five games, so, of course, the hot-take artists on TV and internet have these fun topics to talk about:
- Do the Celtics have a chance to be the greatest team ever?
- Are the Lakers title contenders under new coach JJ Redick?
- Are the Nuggets in trouble?
If the season ended today, you could easily argue “yes” to all these questions. But the NBA season is 82 games, not four or five, so let’s take a look at these early trends and assess whether they are sustainable, fool’s gold or somewhere in between.
The take: The Boston Celtics (4-1) are the greatest regular-season team in NBA history!
As suggested in our preseason power rankings, there are a lot of similarities between the 2023-24 Celtics and the 2014-15 Warriors. Both had historically great regular seasons with double-digit net ratings per 100 possessions — Celtics with a plus-11.6, Warriors with plus-10.2. Both breezed through an injury-riddled field of opponents (not their fault!) on their way to championships and were perhaps not given the respect they deserved heading into their championship defense.
The 2015-16 Warriors opened their season on a 24-game winning streak and dominated the rest of the NBA (except for their last three games — all losses — in losing the NBA Finals against Cleveland) and won a record 73 regular-season games.
Led by Jayson Tatum, a bonafide MVP frontrunner, the Celtics won their first four games this season in a similarly impressive fashion, with a plus-15.3 net rating, before dropping an overtime game on the road to the Pacers on Wednesday. Boston leads the NBA in three-point attempts (51.6), three-point makes (21) and is second in three-point efficiency (40.7 percent).
Will this trend continue? Yes! Well, at least, within reason. There are more parity and talent in today’s NBA than in 2015-16, and the team will be without Kristaps Porzingis for a couple of months, so the Celtics probably won’t win 70-plus games. But don’t be surprised if they once again run away from the NBA (though the Thunder and Cavaliers might hang with them).
The take: The Lakers (3-2) are title contenders again!
Told you Redick was going to be a good coach. The Lakers burst out of the gates with three wins against quality opponents before losing to the Suns and Cavaliers.
Anthony Davis has gone full Godzilla mode, averaging 30.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, three assists, two blocks and 1.6 steals per game, and would probably win the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards if he continued to play this way the whole season.
LeBron James, though he has looked rusty, is still capable of ripping off GOAT-level performances like his fourth quarter against the Kings on Saturday.
Will this trend continue? Yes, with some caveats. As always, there is an “if LeBron and AD can stay healthy” caveat. Plus, the front office must do something to bolster the rotation depth, perhaps by adding Jerami Grant of the Trail Blazers or bruising center Jonas Valančiūnas of the Wizards.
The take: A lack of depth will doom the Nuggets (2-2).
Here’s a stat that doesn’t even sound real: Through the Nuggets’ first three games, the team had a plus-1.5 net rating when Nikola Jokic was on the court and a negative-30.5 net rating when Jokic was off. He had only been on the court 33 minutes a game. The Curse of Russell Westbrook, now with the Nuggets, is real!
The Nuggets (2-2) got smoked by the Thunder in their opener, lost to the Clippers and needed Jokic to put on the Superman cape to escape potentially catastrophic losses to the lowly Raptors and Nets. We knew the front office’s decisions to let Bruce Brown walk two offseasons ago and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this past summer could come back to haunt the Nuggets, but nobody expected them to struggle like this out of the gate this season.
Will this trend continue? Probably not. The Nuggets should be just fine as long as Jokic stays healthy. The two overtime victories over the Raptors and Nets should have been losses, but Jokic calmly went to work on every possession down the stretch and ensured that Denver got a high-quality shot. And guess what? He’s going to do that in every close game — he’s still the best player alive — so as long as the Nuggets aren’t getting blown out, they should still be a playoff team and potential contender.
