Bieber, 30 in May, returns to the only organization he’s ever known. The contract is a reflection of his current status, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April, meaning he will miss at least part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the chance to return to the mound in 2025 and establish his health. If his performance can return anywhere near his previously elite levels, he can decide to return to the open market. Although if he hits any kind of setback or doesn’t quite bounce back immediately, he can bank the extra $12M and stick around another year.
Whether he can indeed get back in form is the big question. Bieber’s ceiling is well established, as he won the American League Cy Young award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 starts that year with a 1.63 earned run average. He struck out 41.1% of batters faced, walked 7.1% of opponents and got grounders at a 48.4% rate.
But things have mostly gone downhill since then, even before the surgery. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t exactly unexpected as maintaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been almost impossible. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate were both off his previous season but still strong numbers. He missed about three months due to a right shoulder subscapularis strain.
In 2022, he stayed healthy enough to make 31 starts and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, but with more concerning signs elsewhere. He averaged just 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that year, after mostly being in the 93-94 range in prior years. His strikeout rate also dipped to 25%, still a bit above league average but a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time due to right elbow inflammation, which seems in hindsight like a precursor to his surgery. He did make 21 starts on the year but with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate and similar velocity to the year prior.
Going into 2024, his name was in plenty of trade rumors. The Guardians often trade players as their salary grows and they get closer to free agency, doing so with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber somewhat recently. In hindsight, perhaps the Guards should have pulled the trigger on a deal, but maybe they didn’t receive substantial offers on the heels of all the red flags in 2022 and 2023.
For a brief moment, hanging onto Bieber seemed like a brilliant move. He made two starts at the beginning of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in each of them and recording 20 strikeouts in those 12 innings. His velocity came back slightly, with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first start of the year. But it dipped to 91.6 mph in the second start and the news of his surgery dropped before he could make a third.
Now he’ll be looking to come back from the lengthy Tommy John recovery process, as well as the concerning seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a long time since Bieber had his best stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was obviously outside of his control, though all but one season since then has seen him miss significant time. In the one season where he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.
All that makes this an interesting gamble for the Guardians, as this is a fairly notable expenditure for them. They don’t generally spend much in free agency, particularly on the pitching side. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, in the last 15 years, this is the first time they’ve given a pitcher more than $7M. That’s partially a testament to their ability to develop their own pitching but they’ve also only given four position players a larger guarantee than this in that time.
Per RosterResource, the Guards are now projected for a payroll of $107MM next year, already more than what they spent in 2024. They could perhaps drop that by trading someone like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas but this Bieber deal is a decent chunk of the budget either way.
It’s a risky proposition for those parameters. Given that recovery from Tommy John surgery normally takes 14 months or longer, the Guards might only get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any kind, it could be less than that. Even if he is back on a big league mound by June, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be in good form.
The upside play is that Bieber comes back to something resembling an ace. The Guards install him into their second half rotation and then, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that point, he would decline his player option and they could issue him a qualifying offer, which will probably be in the $22M range. Assuming he declines that and goes out looking for a major deal, they would recoup draft pick compensation.
On the other end of the spectrum are the scenarios where Bieber isn’t quite fully healthy or simply isn’t as good as he was before, in which case he sticks around for another year at an even higher salary than in 2025.
It’s a risk the Guardians are willing to take, which is perhaps due to the respect that the organization has for him, but it’s also perhaps a reflection of the current rotation situation. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, but the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest part of the roster. They struggled to find viable solutions there for much of the year, finding success on the backs of a decent offense and elite bullpen.
Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen either struggled or were injured or both. Tanner Bibee was the club’s only starter who has consistently healthy and performing well all year long. Matthew Boyd was an excellent midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, but he became a free agent at season’s end and has a deal in place with the Cubs.
Next year’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland currently consists of Bibee and many question marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are still in the mix but coming off those aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Lively is on the roster, as are fairly unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards probably have more to do in upgrading that group but they will hope that Bieber can charge in like a proverbial white knight at some point in the middle of 2025 to save the day.
The aforementioned Boyd gives a rough template of what Bieber and the Guards will be hoping for next year. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight starts down the stretch and then had three more good outings in the postseason. That was enough to get him a two-year, $29M deal, but Bieber has a path to earning far more than that. Boyd is going into his age-34 season whereas Bieber will be going into his age-31 campaign in 2026. Boyd’s injury track record is also more extensive than Bieber’s and Bieber has the more impressive early career numbers.
As such, with a strong finish in 2025, Bieber could position himself to earn far more than Boyd just did. Although that’s just one of many potential scenarios in front of him and the Guardians in the year to come.
