The Kansas City Chiefs are 9-1 through 10 games and control their own destiny to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but Patrick Mahomes is far from the main reason why. Following Kansas City’s Week 11 loss to the Buffalo Bills, their first defeat of the season, it’s time to violate an NFL taboo and criticize the best quarterback on the planet.
Mahomes may be the best in the business, but he hasn’t played like it all season. The Chiefs quarterback has career-worst marks in passing yards per game (240.4), passer rating (90.3), touchdown rate (4.4 percent) and interception rate (3.2 percent). His numbers look even worse when compared to other top QBs around the league.
Through 10 games, Mahomes is tied for the lead in the NFL in interceptions (11) and ranks 11th in passing yards (2,404) and 10th in passing touchdowns (15). Sam Darnold (Minnesota), Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets) and Jordan Love (Green Bay) — who has only played eight games — have thrown more touchdown passes than Mahomes this season.
But let’s dig really deep. Per Rbsdm, Mahomes ranks 12th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, a new advanced stat that measures QB play. That puts him behind Darnold, New Orleans’ Derek Carr and Arizona’s Kyler Murray.
The most telling stat of all, though, is Mahomes’ 5.9-yard average depth of target, which ranks 34th out of 35 qualified QBs. New England’s Jacoby Brissett, Las Vegas’ Gardner Minshew and even Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson, who was terrible this season before a season-ending injury, have pushed the ball down the field more than Mahomes this season.
The greatest quarterback of this generation has turned into the checkdown king before our very eyes, which is why the Chiefs rank 16th in the NFL in total offense and 19th in yards per play.
You could blame these numbers on Kansas City’s lack of weapons, but that doesn’t seem fair. “Washed-up” Travis Kelce ranks second among all tight ends in catches (62) and fourth in receiving yards (507). Wideout DeAndre Hopkins looked more than capable when he put up 86 yards and two touchdowns in just his second game with the team. Mahomes connected with Kelce and Hopkins a combined five times for 37 total yards against the Bills, leading to Kansas City’s first loss of the season.
Mahomes has avoided criticism all season thanks to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense. Before this week, Kansas City ranked fifth in the NFL in total defense and points allowed per game. The defense finally cracked in Week 11, giving up 30 points to the Bills, and Mahomes was unable to pay Spagnuolo back for all the times he has bailed out the offense this season.
Entering Week 11, the Chiefs ranked No. 1 in the NFL in luck rating (3.0), per Team Rankings. No other team in the league had a luck rating higher than 1.7.
Mahomes has escaped criticism this season because his team won, but Kansas City’s luck is finally starting to run out. If Mahomes can’t turn around his disappointing season, the Chiefs won’t be able to hold onto the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the AFC.
