Some members of the NFL community suggested after the Minnesota Vikings improved to 11-2 on the season via Sunday’s 42-21 win over the Atlanta Falcons that the Vikings should hold onto quarterback Sam Darnold this offseason even though they selected signal-caller J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Darnold is on track to reach free agency when the new league year opens in March, but the Vikings could have something to say about that depending on how the 27-year-old plays through Minnesota’s final game of the season.
“I asked a few execs Sunday night where they saw Darnold’s market,” NFL insider Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated shared. “One guessed he’d command a three-year, $110M contract with more than $40M guaranteed. Another said he thought the Vikings should consider franchise tagging him even though the price on that projects to top $41M, and that he’d probably get $40M per year if he hit the open market.”
There’s plenty to unpack here.
The salary cap is once again set to increase this offseason, and history shows teams can almost always create needed cap space via contract extensions and other clever bookkeeping activities. Thus, there’s currently little reason to believe the Vikings couldn’t afford to tag Darnold this winter.
Whether or not they’ll want to do so is unknown. According to ESPN stats, Darnold ended this past weekend ranked 15th in the NFL with a 59.0 adjusted QBR for the season. He’s tied for third with 28 touchdown passes and sixth with 3,299 yards through the air, but he also tossed 10 interceptions over his first 13 games with Minnesota.
As for McCarthy, nobody can say with absolute certainty what he will and/or won’t be next summer coming off the complete meniscus repair the rookie needed in August. At the very least, Minnesota using the franchise tag to retain Darnold’s rights for 2025 would give the club extra time to evaluate McCarthy’s recovery.
Darnold completed 22-of-28 passes for 347 yards with five touchdowns and no picks against the Falcons. If he routinely produces similar stats en route to guiding the Vikings to more than just a playoff berth, Minnesota may eventually have to consider making McCarthy available before the 2025 draft.
For now, the Vikings can simply hope Darnold stays hot during next Monday’s home game versus the 4-9 Chicago Bears.
