Low humidity and a staggering lack of precipitation have led to an elevated risk of fire across the tri-state area.
Throughout Connecticut and New Jersey, the fire danger is considered very high. Across the Hudson Valley, NYC, and Long Island, New York state is under a moderate risk of fire danger.
There are three main factors that dictate fire danger: wind, moisture, and the presence of dry brush.
Winds are the one factor working in our favor right now. They are light with no gusts. Strong, gusty winds help to fan flames when fires start and really promote dangerous fire conditions.
Humidity, on the other hand, is not working in our favor.
Low relative humidity – a measure of atmospheric moisture — increases fire danger. When humidity is low, the lack of moisture in the atmosphere draws moisture out of vegetation and increases fire danger.
Right now, our humidity levels are running in the 20-30% range. Anything below 30% is not good.
The more dry brush available on the ground, the greater the fire danger. Relative humidity plays a role in drying out brush, but an even greater influence is derived from rainfall – or the lack thereof, in our case. Unfortunately for the tri-state, we have been incredibly dry this month, with no measurable rain in the books for Central Park.
The lack of rain is compounding area drought conditions. Every county in our viewing area is abnormally dry, at the very least. For much of Central and South Jersey, moderate drought conditions are starting to spread.
In southern Ocean County, that drought has already reached severe limits.
The fire danger throughout the tri-state area is in varying degrees of severity, but it is elevated everywhere.
With this in mind, do your part to minimize the fire risk. Refrain from starting campfires, burning trash or leaves, or discarding cigarette butts outside.
Unfortunately, our exceedingly dry conditions don’t look to end soon. There is little to no relief in the forecast.
There is a slight shower chance on Saturday, but even then the amount of rain we could get won’t impact our current course. Over the next 10 days, most of us will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain.
Some areas north of New York City could pick up slightly more, but areas to the south will be largely rain-free. That means the moderate and severe drought conditions in New Jersey will persist.
