The Phils are making a bet on a bounceback. Romano, 32 in February, just finished a frustrating and injury-marred season with the Blue Jays but was their closer for three years prior to that. The righty saved 95 games for the Jays from 2021-23, tossing 186 innings with a 2.37 earned run average. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at a 9.2% clip and getting grounders on 42.3% of balls in play.
But 2024 was mostly a lost season for him. He started the season on the injured list due to some right elbow inflammation and never seemed to be fully healthy. He went on and off the IL throughout the year, making just 15 appearances with a 6.59 ERA. His 21% strikeout rate in that small sample was not only below his previous work but also below league average.
He underwent arthroscopic surgery on the elbow in July and was given an estimated six-week shutdown time frame. The Jays were hoping to get Romano back on the mound before the season was up but that didn’t come to pass. His last major league appearance was May 29.
The Jays could have retained Romano for one more season via arbitration. Salaries almost never go down via the arb system, so MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the righty for the same $7.75M salary he made in 2024. The Jays apparently weren’t willing to fork over that kind of cash for the chance to find out if Romano could get over his lost season, as he was not tendered a contract for 2025. General manager Ross Atkins said that he expected Romano to be healthy and hoped to re-sign him, but presumably at a lower price point. Instead, it seems Romano will get a fresh start with a new organization without a pay cut.
The Philadelphia bullpen has been shuffled quite a bit in recent months. They traded away Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto at the trade deadline, then lost Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez to free agency at season’s end. They still have some good arms back there, including Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm, but they’ve naturally been looking for bullpen upgrades this winter.
Opting for Romano also makes sense for financial reasons. The Phils have spent a lot of money on their roster in recent years, both via free agency and extensions of incumbent players. That has led to them paying the competitive balance tax three years in a row now. Going into 2025, they were projected to have a high payroll and CBT number yet again before even making any offseason moves.
That has seemingly led to a shift in approach this winter. While they have been connected to many of the top available free agents in recent offseasons, they seemingly didn’t get involved in the Juan Soto frenzy and there have been many rumors about them trying to trade players like Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and others.
They reportedly had some interest in re-signing Hoffman and Estevez but both will likely be signing deals far larger than this pact for Romano. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hoffman for a four-year, $44M deal. That was before clubs reportedly expressed interest in him as a starter, which could potentially increase his earning power. Estevez was projected for a more modest $27M guarantee over three years, but still a notable commitment.
By going for Romano, the Phils are hoping that they are making a big upgrade to their bullpen but at a relatively low cost since they are buying low. There is some risk there, as relievers are generally volatile in general and Romano is coming off an injury-marred season, but it’s a logical gamble to take. If things go especially well, it’s possible the Phils could extend a qualifying offer to Romano at the end of next year. Qualifying offers for relievers are rare, but guys like Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Will Smith have received them in recent years.
Now factoring in Romano, RosterResource projects the Phillies for a $270M payroll. That would be a franchise record by a significant margin, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts having them in the $242M-244M range in recent years. RR projects the CBT number at $289M for next year. That’s not only beyond the $241M base threshold but also the second and third tiers of $261M and $281M, respectively. As a third-time CBT payor, the Phils will be looking at a 50% base tax next year as well as surcharges of 12%, 45% and 60% for spending beyond the higher tiers. That means they are already slated for a 95% tax rate on any additional spending right now and a 110% rate if they go beyond $301M, though successfully trading away a notable contract could drop them lower. If they remain above the third line of $281M, they would also see their top pick in the 2026 draft dropped back 10 spots. All of these could be significant factors as the club looks to make further upgrades this offseason.
