With the NFL preseason officially in the books, fantasy football drafts are in full swing, and there’s no player more polarizing than Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane.
Not only is Achane the most significant high-risk, high-reward player in drafts, but he’s arguably one of the top boom-or-bust selections we’ve ever seen in fantasy football.
If he pans out, the explosive, undersized tailback could be the next Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson and finish as the RB1 overall this season. However, should he flop, the 2023 third-round pick could be why you take part in your league’s version of the 24-hour Waffle House challenge.
Last season, Achane — the RB5 on a points-per-game basis — was historically efficient, rushing for 800 yards and eight touchdowns on 7.8 yards per carry in 11 games while adding 27 receptions for 197 yards and three scores. As Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith pointed out, Achane is one of just four players and two running backs in NFL history to rush for 7.5 yards per attempt on at least 100 carries in a season.
Even so, while the unprecedented start to his career provides optimism that Achane has as much fantasy upside as any running back in the NFL, it’s impossible to overlook his drawbacks. Although he has bulked up this offseason, Achane is still one of the most undersized running backs in the league, standing at 5-foot-9. This potentially raises his risk of injury, which isn’t ideal for someone who missed time with an AC joint and MCL sprain last season.
Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, despite playing in a projected top-five offense, Achane will be in a timeshare with Raheem Mostert, who scored an NFL-high 21 total touchdowns in 2023, and rookie fourth-rounder Jaylen Wright. Achane may emerge as Miami’s lead back, but Mostert will still be heavily utilized, even though he’ll surely regress in the touchdown department.
Then again, does that matter, especially if Achane manages to stay healthy and gets a slight uptick in workload?
In the eight games where Achane played at least 40% of snaps, seven of which came with Mostert in the lineup, the Texas A&M product averaged 22.1 PPR points, according to Fantasy Pros’ Joe Orrico. If Achane averaged 22.1 points over 17 games last season, he would’ve finished as the RB2 overall in PPR scoring formats.
It’s also possible Achane will be on the field alongside Mostert more often this season. Odell Beckham Jr. will begin the season on the PUP list, meaning he’ll be out for at least the first four games of 2024. With Beckham unable to play, Miami only has four wide receivers on its initial 53-man roster, and NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe believes the team could lean on Achane to fill the void.
“Achane has been getting some reps at receiver in camp, and I wouldn’t be surprised if [the Dolphins] play him a decent amount out there,” Wolfe said on Tuesday’s episode of “The Insiders.”
Even though Achane will have to compete for targets with star wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, having additional opportunities to get the ball in his hands makes the second-year tailback’s fantasy outlook all the more promising.
Playing it safe with your second-round pick and selecting a workhorse back like Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs), Derrick Henry (Ravens) or Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars) isn’t a poor decision by any means. But if you play fantasy football with the “if you ain’t first, you’re last” mentality, Achane may be the pick for you.
