Every NBA season, a handful of teams defy expectations and make a significant jump in the standings. This year, the Western Conference is poised for some shake-ups, with several squads ready to climb the ranks.
Which three Western Conference teams are poised to make the biggest jump in wins this season?
Honorable Mention
Houston Rockets
The Rockets made a huge leap last year, going from a 22-win squad in 2022-23 to a .500 record. Still, another such leap may be required for the team to make the postseason in 2024-25. While Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have shown solid development, it might be premature to expect either player to reach elite status next season and lead the Rockets to the playoffs.
No. 3: Dallas Mavericks
The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford via trade propelled the Dallas Mavericks to an 18-9 record after the All-Star game, good for fourth-best in the NBA. The Mavericks’ late-season surge carried into the postseason, where they beat three quality teams — the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves — en route to the NBA Finals before ultimately bowing out to the dominant Celtics.
In the playoffs, Luka Doncic (28.9 PPG) and Kyrie Irving (22.1 PPG) formed one of the most potent offensive backcourts in NBA history. Meanwhile, Washington provided excellent defense, holding his playoff assignments to 4.4% below their typical shooting average, and Gafford provided sturdy rim protection, limiting opposing teams to 59.1% shooting from the restricted area.
With the same core returning, bolstered by the addition of sharpshooter Klay Thompson, the Mavericks have all the ingredients to surpass their 50-32 record in 2023-24 and make a serious push for the top seed in the Western Conference.
Prediction: The Mavericks improve by seven games to 57-25.
No. 2: San Antonio Spurs
Last season, the Spurs finished 14th in the West with a 22-60 record. However, they showed marked improvement after head coach Gregg Popovich inserted Tre Jones into the starting lineup. Their three most effective five-man lineups (+68 total points, +34 total points and +25 total points) all featured Jones, Devin Vassell, and Victor Wembanyama, providing a glimpse of what can be expected this season.
The Spurs further bolstered their roster by signing 12-time All-Star Chris Paul while drafting Stephon Castle, a key player in UConn’s back-to-back national championships. As for Wembanyama, after an earth-shattering rookie season in which he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.6 blocks per game, he’s ready to become a legitimate MVP candidate this year.
While Wembanyama’s likely ascension to a top-10 player and Paul’s veteran leadership will significantly elevate the Spurs’ competitiveness this season, a playoff berth is probably out of reach. The Spurs’ true rise likely won’t occur until the 2025-2026 season.
Prediction: The Spurs improve by 12 games to 34-48.
No. 1: Memphis Grizzlies
In the 2022-23 season, the Grizzlies appeared poised for a championship run. However, Memphis’ momentum was derailed by Ja Morant’s off-court issues. Despite finishing second in the Western Conference with a 51-31 record, the Lakers eliminated them in the first round of the playoffs.
Last season was a total disaster. Morant began the year with a 25-game suspension and then suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after just nine contests, plunging the Grizzlies to the bottom part of the standings.
The heart of Memphis’ championship-caliber team remains intact with Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and a now healthy and motivated Morant. The return of former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart and promising power forward Brandon Clarke from injury further boosts Memphis’ roster. With their team fully intact for the first time over a year, the Grizzlies have the potential to be the most improved team in the league this season.
