Full episode: The nuanced fight for swing states
With fewer than 50 days until voters head to the polls, we examine the battle for the influential Latino vote in key swing states, the potential impact of third party candidates in a tight race, and how Democrats are making a play for disaffected Republican voters.
With less than six weeks until Election Day, presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are working overtime to secure their win in the key battleground states.
Zooming out, the latest national polls favor Harris, according to polling aggregation data from 270toWin. The site’s data averaged 15 national polls from Sept. 8-17 and found that 48.2% support Harris and 45.7% support Trump.
Here is a closer look at how the candidates polled recently in swing states:
Pennsylvania
Favoring Harris
A new poll conducted entirely after last week’s debate indicates whether Harris or Trump has the edge in the most important battleground.
Harris is ahead of Trump 49%-46% among likely voters in Pennsylvania, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted Wednesday through Saturday (Sept. 11-14).
With 19 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania is the biggest of the seven key general election presidential battleground states.
RELATED: New poll shows Harris surging in state thought to be safe for Trump
Georgia
Favoring Trump
An Atlanta-Journal Constitution/University of Georgia poll released Wednesday shows a tightening race for the state’s 16 electoral votes.
Trump drew 47% support in the poll to Harris’ 44%, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
AJC’s polling in June showed Trump held a 5-point lead over then-candidate President Joe Biden.
Swing state poll averages
The polling aggregation website 538, now owned by ABC News, has been calculating polling averages for the 2024 presidential election since April.
The site includes all publicly available scientific polls that meet certain methodological standards.
Here is where the candidates’ average polling is in seven battleground states as of Sept. 17, 2024, according to 538’s data:
Favoring Trump
- Arizona: Trump 47.2% – Harris 46.9%
- Georgia: Trump 47.6% – Harris 46.9%
- North Carolina: Trump 47.4% – Harris 47.2%
Favoring Harris
- Michigan: Harris 47.8% – Trump 46.0%
- Nevada: Harris 47.1% – Trump 46.4%
- Pennsylvania: Harris 47.7% – Trump 46.8%
- Wisconsin: Harris 48.8% – Trump 45.8%
LINK: State-by-state polls at 270toWin.com
