The Yusei Kikuchi era started on the wrong foot before he even reported to the Houston Astros.
The Astros acquired Kikuchi from the Blue Jays on July 29, sending a trio of prospects to Toronto. Kikuchi had struggled prior to the trade, posting a 4.75 ERA and a 1.340 WHiP over his 115 2/3 innings. FanGraphs called the Blue Jays’ return “astronomical” given his struggles after his first 10 starts of the season. Astros general manager Dana Brown spoke out to justify the trade, saying that the price tag for other options they considered was higher.
There were reasons for the Astros to imagine Kikuchi would be the piece they needed for the rotation. He had struck out 130 batters with just 30 walks during his time in Toronto. His 3.67 FIP and .344 batting average on balls in play against suggested that positive regression would be coming.
That has proven to be the case. Kikuchi has been more than the Astros could have hoped for over the last month, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 0.943 WHiP over his 35 innings while striking out 47 batters against just 10 walks. He has been a stabilizing force for a rotation that has lost Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy for the year. As Ronel Blanco has already passed his career high in innings pitched and Hunter Brown is close to his own personal mark on that front, Kikuchi will be even more important down the stretch and into the postseason.
Kikuchi could also make a long-term impact on the Astros despite being slated to reach free agency after this season. Astros rookie Spencer Arrighetti has asked Kikuchi how he attacked hitters and the way Japanese pitchers develop. And Arrighetti was dominant in August, posting a 1.95 ERA and a 0.897 WHiP over his 32 1/3 innings, striking out 47 batters with 10 walks. If Arrighetti continues to dominate, Kikuchi would be worth the cost for his development alone.
The Houston Astros felt that Kikuchi was the piece they needed for the rotation. He is proving to be far more than even the Astros could have expected.
