The Chiefs (9-0) have appeared more vulnerable than their record indicates, but they shouldn’t be dismissed lightly, even as they prepare to play an unmovable object.
The Bills (8-2) are 7-0 when favored this season, and quarterback Josh Allen is arguably playing the best football of his seven-year NFL career.
Through 10 games, Allen is 190-of-299 (63.5%) passing for 2,281 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 261 yards and four touchdowns on 55 carries.
Per Pro Football Focus data, Allen is 61-of-91 (61.6%) for 848 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception when blitzed. Kansas City ranks third in blitz rate (34.5%).
Kansas City’s defensive line’s ability to generate pressure could be key to stopping the Bills’ offense. With tackle Chris Jones a contender for Defensive Player of the Year, the team has the talent to fluster Allen without sending blitzes.
But Mahomes is the biggest difference-maker. While he’s in the midst of his worst statistical season — through nine games, he has the lowest touchdown rate (3.9%) and passer rating (90.3) with the highest interception rate (2.9%) of his seven-year career as a starter — Mahomes can be counted on to come through when it matters most.
The Chiefs rank first in third/fourth down success rate, and Mahomes is the main reason why.
Per rbsdm.com, Mahomes ranks first in expected points added (0.444) per play on third and fourth downs. He has a 56.8% success rate on 111 plays.
The Chiefs have put the two-time MVP in favorable situations. Mahomes’ 7.3 air yards on third and fourth downs rank 25th out of 27 quarterbacks with at least 75 third- and fourth-down plays, but Sumer Sports data shows Kansas City ranks first in average third-down distance, only needing 6.1 yards per conversion attempt.
Mahomes also is first in the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (three) and winning drives (four).
If the game is as close as oddsmakers believe, the three-time Super Bowl champion might have enough magic to move the Chiefs to 10-0.
