The first round of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will conclude on Saturday night when the cars take to the track for the annual Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Some very big names are in danger of being eliminated from championship contention, and their fortunes this weekend could make or break their season. Let’s take a look at three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — as well as one to avoid.
Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+400, per DraftKings as of Friday morning)
Hamlin is the odds-on favorite at Bristol, and for good reason: He’s won the past two races there. He’s also one of the drivers with the most at stake this weekend, entering Saturday night six points below the line to advance after two disastrous runs to open the playoffs. With Hamlin’s chances of capturing that elusive Cup Series title dwindling by the year, this could be one of the most important races of his career.
It’s never cool to pick the oddsmakers’ front-runner, but sometimes, you just have to do it. This is one of those times, so even with a minimal payoff at $400, you’ll want to put your money on Hamlin.
Contender: Ty Gibbs (+1000)
There’s a theme here between Hamlin and Gibbs, and it’s not just that they’re both Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. Gibbs is additionally squarely on the bubble in regards to advancing to the playoffs’ next round, sitting in the final transfer spot at six points above Hamlin. And, much like his teammate, he’s run very well at Bristol, leading at least 100 laps in each of the past two races that Hamlin won.
If there was ever a golden opportunity for the 21-year-old Gibbs to pick up his maiden Cup Series win, it would be now. At +1000, he has the fifth-best odds for this weekend, and it seems like that might even be slightly undervaluing him. He could be Hamlin’s biggest threat.
Dark horse: Chase Briscoe (+2800)
Let’s just go all-in with drivers who have massive playoff implications at stake. Briscoe is tied with Gibbs at six points to the good of Hamlin and has excelled on the short tracks throughout his Cup Series career. Bristol has been among his weaker such tracks, with a best result of 13th in four starts (not counting the dirt races that were held between 2021 and 2023), but he has finished in the top-15 in three of those.
Briscoe leveled up in the regular-season finale at Darlington with his playoff hopes on the line, and with odds of +2800, he should be considered a sleeper to do the same in Bristol. With the speedway’s recent announcement that it will host a Major League Baseball game in 2025, perhaps a swing for the fences is in order.
Avoid: Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)
Continuing with the theme of playoff bubble drivers, one who seems unlikely to keep his season alive is Truex. Sometimes, it’s just not your year, and in Truex’s final full-time season, the racing gods have been downright cruel. He hasn’t finished better than 20th in the past seven races, and he’s 14 points back of Briscoe and Gibbs to advance to the second round.
With his luck as of late and pending retirement, Truex seems to be mentally checked out. Perhaps he can find one final surge (he did finish second at Bristol in the spring) with his back against the wall, but it’s equally likely that his title hopes will end not with a bang, but a whimper. His +1200 odds seem too big of a risk to put any money on.
